Tourism Travel Demand Forecast Method: A Case Study of Lushan Scenic Area
Publication: International Conference on Transportation Engineering 2009
Abstract
The scenic area generates a tourism trips system, which is essentially different from other trips of such purposes as commuting and business, the traditional four-step method is not suitable for tourism travel demand forecasting. A basic forecasting framework was established for the inner trips of scenic areas which are little influenced by trips of residents, relatively enclosed and have regular travel routes. Based on the features of road traffic and the external tourists' trips, a grey model was established to forecast the number of visitors and vehicles coming to the scenic area, and a probability distribution model was proposed to forecast the tourist flows of the main scenery spots. Meanwhile, according to the layout of scenic spots and routes, got the weighting of every road in the scenic area, established weighing model to forecast the vehicle flows on the main roads. Finally, the above models and methods were applied to Lushan scenic area, where the results are in accordance with the practical case.
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© 2009 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Published online: Apr 26, 2012
ASCE Technical Topics:
- Case studies
- Engineering fundamentals
- Forecasting
- Highway and road management
- Highway transportation
- Highways and roads
- Infrastructure
- Mathematics
- Methodology (by type)
- Models (by type)
- Recreation
- Research methods (by type)
- Routing (transportation)
- Statistics
- Tourism
- Traffic engineering
- Traffic models
- Transportation engineering
- Travel demand
- Travel patterns
- Urban and regional development
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