Demand Forecasting Model of the Urban External Passengers of Urban Comprehensive Passenger Transportation Hubs

Urban Comprehensive Passenger Transportation Hubs (UCPTH) are generally large or medium hubs, mostly involving urban external passengers transport through various modes (airway, railway, highway, waterway, etc.) in collecting, dispersing and transferring passengers. The hub urban external passengers demand (its transporting quantities) comprises the main part of its collecting and dispersing demand. So far, the demand forecasting of the UCPTH urban external passengers has generally been conducted based on the forecasting result of the transporting quantities of a certain urban transport mode in a planned year coupled with the panned capacity of this mode in all hubs. The problem is the factors concerned, especially the quantitative elements, are insufficient, resulting in the forecasting hardly being scientific and reliable enough. So, based on the proposal of a distribution rectangle of the external passengers transport, through the analyses of the behaviors in hubs and lighter transport modes selecting and behaviors in the process of internal-external transporting and transferring, a hub selection logit model is established based on the lighter modes. Moreover, the demand forecasting methods for the single and complex hubs urban external passengers are put forward and the calculating examples are provided.