Warning Model for Debt Risk of Toll Highway Based on Efficacy Coefficient Method

Based on the situation of the present heavy debt burden of toll highway in China, the factors of debt risk formation were analyzed and the warning indexes including debt ratio, debt service ratio, debt income ratio, debt repayment ratio, personnel cost ratio and income interests multiple were established in this paper. The weight of each warning index was determined by using four-grade scores method. According to the established indexes and weights, the warning model for debt risk based on efficacy coefficient method was set up and the means of classing the risk grades were studied. Through the warning model, risk grades can be determined by calculating risk exponent, and different countermeasures can be taken according to different risk grades. At last, the accuracy of the model were verified with a case study. Results showed that the model turned out to be reliable. So investment and debt repayment funds can be arranged reasonably on different warning degrees by departments of transportation. Thus, process of policy decision is improved to be more scientific and the debt risk of toll highway is reduced.