Simulation-Based Assessment of the Effect of Large-Scale Events on Urban Road Network Reliability

The objective of this paper is to develop a road network reliability evaluation framework for large-scale events by using the dynamic traffic simulation model INTEGRATION and statistics models. A real vocal concert in Beijing Capital Gym is selected as the case study. The temporal distribution characteristics of the network reliability are analyzed under the selected large-scale event. The results indicate that the travel time reliability decreases visibly around one hour before the curtain time and reaches its minimum near half an hour before the curtain time of the concert. Further, the effect of the selected event on the network reliability is analyzed by comparing two scenarios in terms of whether there is a large-scale event. The critical links significantly affected by the large-scale event are identified, based on the difference of travel time reliabilities between these two scenarios. It is demonstrated that the impact of large-scale events on the network reliability is not dispersed in the radial direction, but rather scattered. Finally, the paper evaluates the impact of installing Variable Message Signs (VMS) on these critical links during the period of large-scale events on reliability.