Uncertainty of Large Scale Project Logistics Based on the Decision Network Planning Technique

Large scale project logistics is a type of complicated system engineering. The related implemental scheme must be more adaptive considering the uncertainties, resulting from the large scale structural complexity and diverse range of such a project. Based on the fixed background condition, most of the current project logistics designs have obvious static characteristic without consideration of uncertainties. Based on the traditional design, a concept is presented to resolve this problem: A dynamic emergency response system is used to adjust the entire practice procedure through analysis of the uncertainties of logistics scheme during the operation. Based on this concept, the dynamic topology analysis model for large scale project logistics is established by using decision network planning technique (DN) and uncertainty theory. The new model is validated through an example of the transportation of large size chemical equipment which provides effective decision support for the scientific management of large scale project logistics.