Chapter
Apr 26, 2012
The Application of Combined Forecast Method in Predicting Freight Volume of Railway
Authors: Fang Huang [email protected], Yaqiang Shen [email protected], and Siyu Tao [email protected]Author Affiliations
Publication: International Conference on Transportation Engineering 2007
Abstract
With the development of the forecasting technology, combined forecast method becomes one focus of the research and has been used successfully in many fields, especially in the field of port throughput forecasting. However, the combined forecast method has seldom been applied to the railway freight volume prediction. In this paper, Three-Time Exponential and GM(1,1) forecasting method are combined to predict railway freight volume. Minimum weighted sum of the absolute value of the error is adopted as the optimal rule. Compared with the two single methods, this composite model has substantially improved the forecast accuracy.
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Published In
International Conference on Transportation Engineering 2007
Pages: 3347 - 3352
Copyright
© 2007 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Published online: Apr 26, 2012
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ASCE Technical Topics:
- Composite materials
- Engineering fundamentals
- Engineering materials (by type)
- Forecasting
- Freight transportation
- Hydraulic engineering
- Hydraulic structures
- Infrastructure
- Materials engineering
- Mathematics
- Model accuracy
- Models (by type)
- Ports and harbors
- Rail transportation
- Statistics
- Transportation engineering
- Water and water resources
Authors
Affiliations
Department of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, College of Communications, ZheJiang Normal University P.O.Box 32, City, Jinhua321019. E-mail: [email protected]
Department of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, College of Communications, ZheJiang Normal University P.O.Box 32, City, Jinhua321019. E-mail: [email protected]
College of Traffic and Transportation, South West JiaoTong University, No.111 Erhuan Road Beiyiduan, City, Chengdu610031. E-mail: [email protected]
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Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.