Agent-Based IDSS Model for Wagon Flow Forecast in Railway Network

Dynamic forecast for wagon flow of railway net is playing important roles in the railway dispatching process, and it is the base of transportation plan establishment and wagon flow adjustment. The method for wagon flow forecast was treated by hand for a long time, so the wagon information is not open, perfect and real-time, which have led to the serious hard state for transportation. So, an Agent-based IDSS model of wagon flow forecast is established in the paper, and the Agent-based model structure and its realization and me rolling intelligent forecast method for three class wagon flow are put forward, which can meet the request of Ministry of Railways, railway administration and station, and solve the existing problem by actual method. The model can not only provide the full and exact information service and decision support for transportation administrator of all levels and improve the automatization level of train dispatching, but also effectively balance the transportation ability of all main line. So the realization of the model can obtain obvious society benefit and economy returns.