Train Delay Propagation Simulation in Rail Transit System

Urban rail transit system plays a key role in mobility in urban cities. The operation reliability of trains is a critical performance measure for passenger satisfaction and ultimately affects its market share. This paper discusses the train delay and Propagation characteristics in urban rail transit system. More specifically, this paper discussed the application of the model to assess how punctuality and reliability is affected by changes of availability, buffer time, and reserve rolling stock quantity and so on. A case study in Shanghai rail transit line 3 illustrates the practical value of the model. In this paper we use the simulations to explore the effect of some policy or parameter changes. For example, we use the simulation to compare a policy of allowing buffer time changes. Also, we use the simulations to examine a policy of allowing spare rolling stock number changes. This method can be used to test and compare the reliability of proposed timetable, or schedule changes, before adopting them. And it can also be used to explore some management method to reduce the influence of train delay.