Assessing Methodologies for Evaluating the Potential of Activity Balancing Policies in Brazil

This work aims at evaluating alternative methodologies for analyzing the impact of activity-balancing policies as tools for improving urban traffic conditions in the specific context of Brazilian cities, taking the City of São Paulo as a background case (a ten-million inhabitants city with an eighteen-million inhabitants metropolitan area). The US literature on subjects such as house-jobs balance and urban form and their effects on transport is especially relevant for gathering points of view. After reviewing the justification, prospects and constraints for activity-balancing policies, alternative approaches for evaluating the potential effects are compared based on four points: the main data needed, methods of study, analysis units and types of results. Model based approaches are investigated on grounds of data availability (including software implementation) and theoretical capabilities (weighting model complexity). A range of options covering conventional four-stage models and integrated land use/transport models are considered. Then, a framework for selecting the method of study is sketched and the specific case of a study for São Paulo City is screened. Despite its peculiarities, such as the availability of a large series of OD data from 4 decennial household surveys, this setting is thought to be representative of other large cities (in developed or developing countries). The final goal is the definition of a sound approach for the real case study to be undertaken shortly. Due to the lack of professional experience on real case studies on the subject, the careful methodological and theoretical analysis is judged to be of considerable value.