Implications of Climate Change for Modeling Coastal Hazards

If climate changes predicted for the next one hundred years do in fact occur, coastal management plans and physical structures being designed today may face conditions during their design lifetimes that are significantly different from historical climate. This presents a serious challenge to engineers, coastal planners, and emergency managers who have depended on history to be a guide to the future. Climate change may lead directly to changes in the frequency and intensity of storms, or it could lead to environmental changes which would alter the impact of given storm events. Here these problem areas are discussed, along with simulation approaches to assist decision-makers evaluate the potential for altered risk due to climate change. Examples for wind return periods and storm surge modeling are discussed.