NOAA National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science-Biogeography Program: Integration of Ecology and GIS to Assess Impacts of Climate Change on Living Marine Resources

This paper provides an overview of activities underway in NOAA's National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science-Biogeography Program that are applicable to determining the impacts of climate change on the biogeography of living marine resources. The paper demonstrates the utility of a biogeographic process in modeling and assessing the potential impacts in marine ecosystems. The process is organized around three components: 1) Data Inputs, 2) Science Products, and 3) Management Tools. Two case studies are presented that utilize the biogeographic approach to demonstrate the utility of the process in understanding potential ecological impacts due to climate change and variability. First, a study is presented on determining the impacts of changes in freshwater inflow on the eastern oyster in Apalachicola Bay, FL. Results indicate that under drought conditions and high human demand for freshwater, hydrodynamic characteristics of the bay would be conducive to increased oyster mortality due to predation and disease. Case study two demonstrates how the biogeographic process increases climate change assessment capabilities by coupling species distributions and abundance to benthic habitats found within coral reef ecosystems. A modeling approach is provided to conduct impact assessment scenarios based on ecosystem responses to climate change.