Voyage Estimate and Decision-Making on the Tramp Operation

This paper points out the problems in existing voyage estimate on a tramp operation. By lots of statistics and investigation works, it analyzes the probability of winds within a certain sailing area as well as its influence over a vessel's voyage. The probability distribution of a vessel encountering winds k times in a voyage are testified and the expected per day net revenue value of a voyage is calculated. Then, the paper further puts forward the decision-making problems in a vessel's voyage and analyzes its main influencing factors. Thus, the hierarchy structure and its judgement matrix are established and lead to the adoption of the AHP method on a vessel's voyage. The results of real examples prove to be reliable and realistic.