Risk-Informed Bridge Ranking at Project and Network Levels
Publication: Journal of Infrastructure Systems
Volume 24, Issue 3
Abstract
A novel method is proposed to rank bridges for maintenance priorities based on the risk posed by structural deterioration. The proposed method integrates structural reliability analysis, public datasets, and traffic flow theory to provide more accurate estimates of (1) probabilities of bridge failure, and (2) failure consequences. For the former, failure probabilities of deteriorating bridges are determined based on the condition ratings of bridge superstructures and substructures as well as a Markov chain deterioration model; public datasets in the national bridge inventory of the United States are used to estimate Markovian transition probabilities. For the latter, social impacts of bridge failures are considered at the transportation network level to holistically evaluate the failure consequences. By virtue of traffic flow and random field theories, bridge failures and their impacts are analyzed beyond the project level, incorporating decision changes of traffic users in route choices and spatial correlation of bridge failures. Eventually, risk of each bridge in the network is quantified as the expected consequences of an undesirable outcome (i.e., bridge failure). Based on risks at network level, bridges are ranked for maintenance priorities. The proposed method is illustrated through numerical examples and is compared with bridge ranking results based on other indicators, including sufficiency ratings and risks at project level. Compared with other indicators, the proposed method provides a more rational criterion for maintenance planning and portfolio management.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Acknowledgments
The authors are grateful for the financial support received from the US National Science Foundation Grant CMMI 1537926. The opinions and conclusions presented in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsoring organizations. The authors are also grateful to Prof. Jin-Guang Teng at the Hong Kong Polytechnic University for his insightful discussions and suggestions during the preparation of this paper.
References
ALGA (Australian Local Government Association). 2015. National state of the assets: Roads and community infrastructure report. Canberra, Australia: Australian Local Government Association.
ASCE. 2017. Report card for America’s infrastructure. Reston, VA: ASCE.
Bell, M. G. H., and Y. Iida. 1997. Transportation network analysis. New York: Wiley.
Bocchini, P., and D. M. Frangopol. 2011a. “A stochastic computational framework for the joint transportation network fragility analysis and traffic flow distribution under extreme events.” Probab. Eng. Mech. 26 (2): 182–193. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.probengmech.2010.11.007.
Bocchini, P., and D. M. Frangopol. 2011b. “Generalized bridge network performance analysis with correlation and time-variant reliability.” Struct. Saf. 33 (2): 155–164. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2011.02.002.
Bocchini, P., and D. M. Frangopol. 2012. “Restoration of bridge networks after an earthquake: Multicriteria intervention optimization.” Earthquake Spectra 28 (2): 426–455. https://doi.org/10.1193/1.4000019.
Bocchini, P., D. M. Frangopol, and G. Deodatis. 2011. “A random field based technique for the efficiency enhancement of bridge network life-cycle analysis under uncertainty.” Eng. Struct. 33 (12): 3208–3217. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2011.08.024.
Bocchini, P., D. Saydam, and D. M. Frangopol. 2013. “Efficient, accurate, and simple Markov chain model for the life-cycle analysis of bridge groups.” Struct. Safety 40: 51–64. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2012.09.004.
Cesare, B. M. A., C. Santamarina, C. Turkstra, and E. H. Vanmarcke. 1992. “Modeling bridge deterioration with Markov chains.” J. Transp. Eng. 118 (6): 820–833. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-947X(1992)118:6(820).
Cha, E. J., and B. R. Ellingwood. 2012. “Risk-averse decision-making for civil infrastructure exposed to low-probability, high-consequence events.” Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 104: 27–35. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2012.04.002.
Decò, A., and D. M. Frangopol. 2011. “Risk assessment of highway bridges under multiple hazards.” J. Risk Res. 14 (9): 1057–1089. https://doi.org/10.1080/13669877.2011.571789.
de Dios Ortúzar, J., and L. G. Willumsen. 2011. Modelling transport. New York: Wiley.
Ditlevsen, O., and H. O. Madsen. 2005. Structural reliability methods. New York: Wiley.
FHWA (Federal Highway Administration). 1992. “National bridge inventory (NBI).” Federal Highway Administration Website. Accessed July 15, 2016. https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/bridge/nbi.cfm.
FHWA (Federal Highway Administration). 1995. Recording and coding guide for the structure inventory and appraisal of the nation’s bridges. McLean, VA: FHWA.
FHWA (Federal Highway Administration). 2000. “Census transportation planning products.” Federal Highway Administration Website. Accessed July 15, 2016. http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/planning/census_issues/ctpp/.
FHWA (Federal Highway Administration). 2010. Bridge management questionnaire report. Washington, DC: FHWA.
Frangopol, D. M. 2011. “Life-cycle performance, management, and optimization of structural systems under uncertainty: Accomplishments and challenges.” Struct. Infrastruct. Eng. 7 (6): 389–413.
Frangopol, D. M., and P. Bocchini. 2012. “Bridge network performance, maintenance and optimisation under uncertainty: Accomplishments and challenges.” Struct. Infrastruct. Eng. 8 (4): 341–356. https://doi.org/10.1080/15732479.2011.563089.
Frangopol, D. M., J. S. Kong, and E. S. Gharaibeh. 2001. “Reliability-based life-cycle management of highway bridges.” J. Comput. Civ. Eng. 15 (1): 27–34. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0887-3801(2001)15:1(27).
Frangopol, D. M., and M. Soliman 2016. “Life-cycle of structural systems: Recent achievements and future directions.” Struct. Infrastruct. Eng. 12 (1): 1–20.
Gardoni, P., F. Guevara-Lopez, and A. Contento. 2016. “The life profitability method (LPM): A financial approach to engineering decisions.” Struct. Safety 63: 11–20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2016.06.006.
Ghosh, J., K. Rokneddin, J. E. Padgett, and L. Dueñas-Osorio. 2014. “Seismic reliability assessment of aging highway bridge networks with field instrumentation data and correlated failures. I: Methodology.” Earthquake Spectra 30 (2): 795–817. https://doi.org/10.1193/040512EQS155M.
Ghosn, M., et al. 2016. “Performance indicators for structural systems and infrastructure networks.” J. Struct. Eng. 142 (9): 1–18. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ST.1943-541X.0001542.
ICE (Institution of Civil Engineers). 2014. The state of the nation: Infrastructure 2014. London: ICE.
Karl, T., and W. J. Koss. 1984. Regional and national monthly, seasonal, and annual temperature weighted by area, 1895–1983. Asheville, NC: National Climatic Data Center.
Lim, H.-W., J. Song, and N. Kurtz. 2015. “Seismic reliability assessment of lifeline networks using clustering-based multi-scale approach.” Earthquake Eng. Struct. Dyn. 44 (3): 355–369. https://doi.org/10.1002/eqe.2472.
Liu, L., D. M. Frangopol, A. Mondoro, and D. Y. Yang. 2018. “Sustainability-informed bridge ranking under scour based on transportation network performance and multi-attribute utility.” J. Bridge Eng., in press.
Liu, M., and D. M. Frangopol 2005. “Bridge annual maintenance prioritization under uncertainty by multiobjective combinatorial optimization.” Comput. Aided Civ. Infrastruct. Eng. 20 (5): 343–353.
Madanat, S., R. Mishalani, and W. H. W. Ibrahim. 1995. “Estimation of infrastructure transition probabilities from condition rating data.” J. Infrastruct. Syst. 1 (2): 120–125. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1076-0342(1995)1:2(120).
Modarres, M. 2008. “Probabilistic risk assessment.” In Encyclopedia of quantitative risk analysis and assessment, edited by E. L. Melnick and B. S. Everitt. New York: Wiley.
Nowak, A. S. 1999. “Calibration of LRFD bridge design code.”. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.
OpenStreetMap. 2004. “OpenStreetMap.” Accessed July 10, 2017. https://www.openstreetmap.org.
Patriksson, M. 2015. The traffic assignment problem: Models and methods. Mineola, NY: Dover Publications.
Radovic, M., O. Ghonima, and T. Schumacher. 2017. “Data mining of bridge concrete deck parameters in the national bridge inventory by two-step cluster analysis.” J. Risk Uncertainty Eng. Syst. Part B Mech. Eng. 3 (2): F4016004. https://doi.org/10.1061/AJRUA6.0000889.
Roelfstra, G., R. Hajdin, B. Adey, and E. Brühwiler. 2004. “Condition evolution in bridge management systems and corrosion-induced deterioration.” J. Bridge Eng. 9 (3): 268–277. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1084-0702(2004)9:3(268).
Rokneddin, K., and J. Ghosh. 2013. “Bridge retrofit prioritisation for ageing transportation networks subject to seismic hazards.” Struct. Infrastruct. Eng. 9 (10): 1050–1066. https://doi.org/10.1080/15732479.2011.654230.
Rokneddin, K., J. Ghosh, L. Dueñas-Osorio, and J. E. Padgett. 2014. “Seismic reliability assessment of aging highway bridge networks with field instrumentation data and correlated failures. II: Application.” Earthquake Spectra 30 (2): 819–843. https://doi.org/10.1193/040612EQS160M.
Royset, J. O., and R. T. Rockafellar. 2015. “Risk measures in engineering design under uncertainty.” In Proc., Int. Conf. on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, ICASP 2015. Vancouver, BC, Canada: Univ. of British Columbia.
Sabatino, S., D. M. Frangopol, and Y. Dong. 2016. “Life cycle utility-informed maintenance planning based on lifetime functions: Optimum balancing of cost, failure consequences and performance benefit.” Struct. Infrastruct. Eng. 12 (7): 830–847. https://doi.org/10.1080/15732479.2015.1064968.
Saydam, D., P. Bocchini, and D. M. Frangopol. 2013a. “Time-dependent risk associated with deterioration of highway bridge networks.” Eng. Struct. 54: 221–233. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2013.04.009.
Saydam, D., D. M. Frangopol, and Y. Dong. 2013b. “Assessment of risk using bridge element condition ratings.” J. Infrastruct. Syst. 19 (3): 252–265. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)IS.1943-555X.0000131.
Sobanjo, J. O. 2011. “State transition probabilities in bridge deterioration based on Weibull sojourn times.” Struct. Infrastruct. Eng. 7 (10): 747–764. https://doi.org/10.1080/15732470902917028.
Stewart, M. G., and R. E. Melchers. 1997. Probabilistic risk assessment of engineering systems. London: Chapman & Hall.
Thompson, P. D., E. P. Small, M. Johnson, and A. R. Marshall. 1998. “The Pontis bridge management system.” Struct. Eng. Int. 8 (4): 303–308. https://doi.org/10.2749/101686698780488758.
Tixier, J., G. Dusserre, O. Salvi, and D. Gaston. 2002. “Review of 62 risk analysis methodologies of industrial plants.” J. Loss Prev. Process Ind. 15 (4): 291–303. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0950-4230(02)00008-6.
Van-Noortwijk, J. M., and D. M. Frangopol. 2004. “Two probabilistic life-cycle maintenance models for deteriorating civil infrastructures.” Probab. Eng. Mech. 19 (4): 345–359.
Yang, D. Y., and D. M. Frangopol. 2017. “Risk-based bridge ranking considering transportation network performance.” In Proc., 12th Int. Conf. on Structural Safety & Reliability (ICOSSAR 2017), edited by C. Bucher, B. R. Ellingwood, and D. M. Frangopol, 358–366. Vienna, Austria: TU Verlag Vienna.
Zhou, Y., S. Banerjee, and M. Shinozuka. 2010. “Socio-economic effect of seismic retrofit of bridges for highway transportation networks: A pilot study.” Struct. Infrastruct. Eng. 6 (1–2): 145–157. https://doi.org/10.1080/15732470802663862.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Copyright
©2018 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jul 12, 2017
Accepted: Mar 6, 2018
Published online: Jul 6, 2018
Published in print: Sep 1, 2018
Discussion open until: Dec 6, 2018
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.