Random Creep and Shrinkage in Structures: Ampling
Publication: Journal of Structural Engineering
Volume 111, Issue 5
Abstract
This paper deals with uncertainty in the prediction of the effects of creep and shrinkage in structures, such as deflections or stresses, caused by uncertainties in the material parameters for creep and shrinkage, including the effect of random environmental humidity. This problem was previously analyzed using two‐point estimates of probability moments. Here the same problem is analyzed using latin hypercube sampling. This has the merit that the number of required deterministic structural creep analyses is reduced from to approximately 2n, where A method of taking into account the uncertainty due to the error of the principle of superposition is also presented. The mean and variance of creep effects in structures are calculated and scatter bands are plotted for seven typical practical examples, and the results are found to be close to those obtained with two‐point estimates. Further, it is demonstrated that the distribution of creep effects is approximately normal if the creep parameters are normally distributed. Finally, it is shown that good results may also be obtained with the age‐adjusted effective modulus method, which greatly simplifies structural creep analysis.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
References
1.
Anderson, C. A., “Numerical Creep Analysis of Structures,” Creep and Shrinkage in Concrete Structures, Chapter 8, Z. P. Bažant and F. H. Wittmann, eds., John Wiley & Sons, Inc., London, U.K., 1982, pp. 297–301.
2.
Anderson, C. A., Whiteman, D. E., Smith, P. D., and Yao, J. T. P., “A Method for Reliability Analysis of Concrete Reactor Vessels,” Publication 78‐PVP‐100, ASME, 1979; also Journal of Pressure Vessels Technology, Transactions of the ASME, 1979.
3.
Bažant, Z. P., “Probabilistic Problems in Prediction of Creep and Shrinkage Effects in Structures,” Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Application of Statistics and Probability in Soil and Structural Engineering, Florence, Italy, June, 1983, pp. 325–356.
4.
Bažant, Z. P., “Input of Creep and Shrinkage Characteristics for a Structural Analysis Program,” Materials and Structures, Matériaux et Constructions (RILEM, Paris, France), Vol. 15, No. 88, July–Aug., 1982, pp. 283–290.
5.
Bažant, Z. P., “Prediction of Concrete Creep Effects Using Age‐Adjusted Effective Modulus Method,” Journal of the American Concrete Institute, Vol. 69, 1972, pp. 212–217.
6.
Bažant, Z. P., “Mathematical Models for Creep and Shrinkage of Concrete,” Creep and Shrinkage of Concrete Structures, Z. P. Bažant and F. H. Wittmann, eds., John Wiley and Sons, Inc., London, U.K., 1982, pp. 163–256.
7.
Bažant, Z. P., and Chern, J. C., “Bayesian Statistical Prediction of Concrete Creep and Shrinkage,” Journal of the American Concrete Institute, Vol. 81, No. 6, July–Aug., 1984, pp. 319–330.
8.
Bažant, Z. P., and Panula, L., “Practical Prediction of Time‐Dependent Deformation of Concrete,” Materials and Structures, Matériaux et Constructions (RILEM, Paris, France), Vol. 11, No. 65, Sept.–Oct., 1978, pp. 307–328;
Vol. 11, No. 66, Nov.–Dec., 1978, pp. 415–434;
and Vol. 12, No. 69, May–June, 1979, pp. 169–183.
9.
Bažant, Z. P., and Panula, L., “Creep and Shrinkage Characterization for Analyzing Prestressed Concrete Structures,” Journal of the Prestressed Concrete Institute, Vol. 25, No. 3, May–June, 1980, pp. 86–122.
10.
Bažant, Z. P., and Panula, L., “New Model for Practical Prediction of Creep and Shrinkage,” American Concrete Institute Special Publication SP‐76, Detroit, Mich., 1982, pp. 7–23.
11.
Bažant, Z. P., “Numerical Determination of Long‐Range Stress History from Strain History in Concrete,” Materials and Structures—Matériaux et Constructions (RILEM, Paris, France), Vol. 5, No. 27, May–June, 1972, pp. 135–141.
12.
Bažant, Z. P., and Najjar, J., “Comparison of Approximate Linear Methods for Concrete Creep,” Proceedings, ASCE, Vol. 99, No. ST9, Sept., 1973, pp. 1851–1874.
13.
Bažant, Z. P., and Wang, T. S., “Spectral Analysis of Random Shrinkage Stresses in Concrete,” Journal of Engineering Mechanics, ASCE, Vol. 110, 1984, pp. 173–186;
see also Journal of Structural Engineering, ASCE, Vol. 110, 1984, pp. 2196–2211.
14.
Bethea, R. M., Duran, B. S., and Boullion, T. L., Statistical Methods for Engineers and Scientists, Marcel Dekker, Inc., New York, N.Y., 1975, pp. 132–137, 435–440, and 533–557.
15.
Çinlar, E., Bažant, Z. P., and Osman, E., “Stochastic Process for Extrapolating Concrete Creep,” Journal of the Engineering Mechanics Division, ASCE, Vol. 103, 1977, pp. 1069–1088;
Discussion, June, 1979, pp. 485–489.
16.
Cochran, W. G., and Cox, G. M., Experimental Design, John Wiley & Sons, London, U.K., 1950, pp. 103–116.
17.
Fisher, R. A., and Yates, F., Statistical Tables, 4th ed., Oliver & Boyd, Ltd., Edinburgh, Scotland, 1953.
18.
Hald, A., Statistical Theory with Engineering Applications, Chapters 16 and 17, John Wiley and Sons, Inc., New York, N.Y., 1952.
19.
Madsen, H. O., and Bažant, Z. P., “Uncertainty Analysis of Creep and Shrinkage Effects in Concrete Structures,” Journal of the American Concrete Institute, Vol. 80, Mar.–Apr., 1983, pp. 116–127.
20.
McKay, M. D., A Method of Analysis for Computer Codes, Los Alamos National Laboratory, 1980.
21.
McKay, M. D., Beckman, R. J., and Conover, W. J., “A Comparison of Three Methods for Selecting Values of Input Variables in the Analysis of Output from a Computer Code,” Technometrics, Vol. 21, No. 2, May, 1979, pp. 239–245.
22.
McKay, M. D., Conover, W. J., and Whiteman, D. C., “Report on the Application of Statistical Techniques to the Analysis of Computer Code,” Report LA‐NUREG‐6526‐MS, NRC‐4, Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory, 1976.
23.
“Prediction of Creep, Shrinkage and Temperature Effects on Concrete Structures,” Special Publication SP‐76, American Concrete Institute Committee 209/II, American Concrete Institute, Detroit, Mich., 1982.
24.
Raj, D., Sampling Theory, McGraw Hill, Inc., pp. 81–84 and 206–209.
25.
Steinberg, H. A., “Generalized Quota Sampling,” Nuclear Science and Engineering, Vol. 15, pp. 142–145.
26.
Bažant, Z. P., and Zebich, S., “Statistical Linear Regression Analysis of Prediction Models for Creep and Shrinkage,” Cement and Concrete Research, Vol. 13, 1983, pp. 869–876.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Copyright
Copyright © 1985 ASCE.
History
Published online: May 1, 1985
Published in print: May 1985
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.