Global Energy Security: The Case for a Multifaceted Solution Strategy

Energy is a fundamental engine that drives the global economy. The world will continue to face acute energy challenges, whose solutions require the engagement of a multifaceted solution strategy. This solution strategy must harness the potential capacities of conventional energy and the promise of emerging alternative energy sources. The Energy Information Administration (EIA 2008) projects 50% growth in global energy consumption, from 462 quadrillion Btu (in 2005) to 695 quadrillion Btu (in 2030). The most rapid growth is projected for countries that are not in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) at 85% versus 19% in OECD countries (EIA 2008). Fossil fuels—liquids and other petroleum-based fuels (including fuels from petroleum, ethanol, biodiesel, coal-to-liquids, gas-to-petroleum coke, natural gas liquids, and liquid hydrogen), natural gas and coal—are expected to provide much of the world’s energy requirements. Liquids are expected to be the dominant global energy source, growing from 83.6 million barrels of oil (in 2005) to 112.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (in 2030). The transportation and industrial sectors are expected to consume 74% and 26%, respectively, of the projected increase in this period. Unconventional resources—such as oil sands, extra-heavy oil, biofuels, coal-to-liquids, and gas-to-liquids—are expected to increase from 2.5 million barrels per day in 2005 to 9.7 million barrels per day (in 2030), equivalent to 9% of the total global liquids supply in 2030 on an oil-equivalent basis. Global natural gas consumption is also expected to increase from 104 trillion cubic feet in 2005 to 158 trillion cubic feet in 2030. Global coal consumption is expected to increase from 123 quadrillion Btu (in 2005) to 202 quadrillion Btu (in 2030), in the absence of drastic national and international limiting policies and agreements. China alone will account for 71% of global coal consumption, with the United States and India accounting for a total of only 18%.

Electricity generation from nuclear power will also increase—from 2.6 trillion KWh (in 2005) to 3.8 trillion KWh (in 2030). The EIA (2008) forecasts that the installed global nuclear capacity will grow from $374\mathrm{GW}$ (in 2005) to 498 GW (in 2030). The OECD countries will account for a $56\mathrm{GW}$ and non-OECD countries will account for a $68\mathrm{GW}$ increase within this period. Global energy consumption from renewable sources will increase from 35 quadrillion Btu (in 2005) to 59 quadrillion Btu (in 2030). Increases in renewable energy sources for non-OECD countries will concentrate on new hydropower plants in Asia and Central and South America. In OECD countries, increases in renewable energy will focus on wind, solar and biomass. From the 2001 U.S. National Energy Policy, the energy consumption of the United States will be equivalent to about 130 quadrillion Btu in 2020, of which more than 40% will be derived from the foreign energy supply (US GOV 2002). In the same period, U.S. oil consumption will grow by more than 6 million barrels per day, with a corresponding decline of 1.5 million barrels per day in domestic production. Natural gas consumption is expected to grow by more than 50%, with a corresponding domestic production increase by only 14% by 2020. Electrical energy supply in the United States is derived from coal (52%), nuclear (20%), natural gas (16%), hydropower (7%), crude oil (3%), and renewables (2%). These distributions emphasize the fundamental understanding that fossil fuels will be dominant in the production of energy in the United States and within the global community within the next three decades.

The expanding global economies are tied to reliable and available energy sources, technological innovations, and a skilled labor force to produce, transport and distribute energy derivatives, as well as the sound and sustainable environmental policies to ensure a balance in the ecosystem. In the previous two decades, population growth, geopolitical considerations, environmental concerns, and industrial developments have generated the need for well-diversified energy sources. The U.S. Census Bureau (2008) and the United Nations Department of Economics and Social Affairs (2007) forecast the 2030 global population at about 8.3 billion, with a substantial increase in the non-OECD countries. The fundamental requirement for affordable and reliable energy sources for this increasing global population requires continued use of fossil fuel energy sources for a considerable period into the future. Dependence on fossil fuel energy introduces a challenging environmental problem associated with greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. For example, global carbon dioxide emissions will grow from 28.1 billion metric tons (in 2005) to 34.3 billion metric tons (in 2030), with much of the emissions in non-OECD countries. In 2005, $\mathrm{C}{\mathrm{O}}_2$ emissions from non-OECD countries exceeded that from OECD countries by 7%, and this difference is expected to grow to 72% in 2030, according to (EIA 2008).

The global energy demand projected by (EIA 2008) shows that the global community must develop comprehensive energy policies that tap multifaceted energy sources to solve the energy challenges of the future. Traditional energy forms (i.e., fossil fuels and their derivatives) must be supplemented with other emerging energy forms and technologies that have potential for reducing emissions while at the same time ensuring stability in the markets and pricing of energy forms and their derivatives. Fossil fuels, nuclear, hydrogen, and renewables will all play strategic roles in solving the energy challenges of the global economy. These challenges require collective and cooperative efforts by researchers and educators, energy think tanks, policymakers, nongovernmen-tal organizations, and international organizations to meet defined goals to avoid crises that could undermine the global economy. Research initiatives must be advanced to create the basis for clean energy from fossil fuel minerals, nuclear, and renewables. Policymakers must avail themselves on thorough education on the long-term energy security for making comprehensive policies for solving the global energy problems of the future. Toward these noble ideals, current and future discussions on the daunting energy challenges must be devoid of all political biases to find pragmatic solutions for a sustainable global economy.