Impacts of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation Events and Urban Waterlogging: A Case Study of Beijing
Abstract
This study investigated the adverse impact of climate change and climate-related uncertainties on urban waterlogging. Based on multiclimate models, the future extreme precipitation and urban waterlogging under uncertainties was assessed for Beijing. Future rainfall scenarios under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5/RCP8.5) were generated by the Delta change method combined with Chicago design storm. The InfoWorks ICM was used to simulate the extent of urban waterlogging. Results showed that urban waterlogging in Beijing would increase, which would be induced not only by more severe climate changes, but also by the limited capacity of drainage systems. In addition, the model uncertainties were found to be increased with both the precipitation intensity and the level of climate change, potentially reaching up to 109%. Therefore, this study highlights the importance for taking climate change and the consequent uncertainties into consideration when designing waterlogging prevention measures.
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Data Availability Statement
Data that support the finding of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Acknowledgments
This work was greatly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 72091512).
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Published In
Natural Hazards Review
Volume 25 • Issue 1 • February 2024
Copyright
© 2023 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Mar 6, 2023
Accepted: Aug 16, 2023
Published online: Oct 13, 2023
Published in print: Feb 1, 2024
Discussion open until: Mar 13, 2024
ASCE Technical Topics:
- Case studies
- Climate change
- Climates
- Continuum mechanics
- Drainage
- Drainage systems
- Dynamics (solid mechanics)
- Engineering fundamentals
- Engineering mechanics
- Environmental engineering
- Infrastructure
- Irrigation engineering
- Meteorology
- Methodology (by type)
- Motion (dynamics)
- Municipal water
- Precipitation
- Research methods (by type)
- Solid mechanics
- Uncertainty principles
- Urban and regional development
- Urban areas
- Water (by type)
- Water and water resources
- Water management
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