Abstract
The latest edition of the Highway Capacity Manual (HCM-6) includes, for the first time, a methodology for estimating and predicting the average travel time distribution (TTD) of urban streets. Travel time reliability (TTR) metrics can then be estimated from the TTD. The HCM-6 explicitly considers five key sources of travel time variability. A literature search showed no evidence that the HCM-6 TTR model has ever been calibrated with empirical travel time data. More importantly, previous research showed that the HCM-6 underestimated the empirical TTD variability by 70% on a testbed in Lincoln, Nebraska. In other words, the HCM-6 TTR metrics reflected a more reliable roadway than would be supported by field measurements. This paper proposes a methodology for calibrating the HCM-6 TTR model so that it better estimates the empirical TTD. This calibration approach was used on an arterial roadway in Lincoln, Nebraska, and no statistically significant differences were found between the calibrated HCM-6 TTD and the empirical TTD at the 5% significance level.
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Data Availability Statement
Some or all data, models, or code used during the study were provided by a third party (testbed demand and supply data). Direct requests for these materials may be made to the provider as indicated in the acknowledgments.
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to thank the City of Lincoln for making local data readily available. The contents of this paper reflect the views of the authors, who are responsible for the facts and accuracy of the information presented herein and are not necessarily representative of the state of Nebraska or the city of Lincoln. The authors appreciate the assistance of Andy Jenkins of the City of Lincoln for readily providing testbed data and James Bonneson of Kittleson and Associates who graciously shared his expertise on how the HCM-6 TTR model was developed.
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Journal of Transportation Engineering, Part A: Systems
Volume 146 • Issue 12 • December 2020
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This work is made available under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
History
Received: Mar 31, 2020
Accepted: Jun 23, 2020
Published online: Sep 16, 2020
Published in print: Dec 1, 2020
Discussion open until: Feb 16, 2021
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