Modeling Dynamics of Vehicle-Based Performance Measures of High-Occupancy Vehicle and General-Purpose Traffic Systems
Publication: Journal of Transportation Engineering, Part A: Systems
Volume 144, Issue 2
Abstract
This study aimed at modeling dynamics of traffic systems with integrated and cointegrated stochastic processes using multiple time series of traffic flows generated by general purpose (GP) and high-occupancy vehicle (HOV) systems. Traffic flows on these systems are likely to exhibit trending behavior due to subsystems interactions both in the short run and long run. If they share a common trend, analytic technique is required to model common underlying stochastic trend that in the long run induces equilibrium behavior in a traffic system. Vector-error correction model (VECM) is used for multiple time series variables with persistent common trends generated by integrated variables and that the linear combination of these variables reflects cointegrated processes. Using VECM model, the results showed that traffic flows on high-occupancy vehicle (HOV) and general purpose (GP) traffic systems are integrated and cointegrated, and there are short run dynamics and long run linear equilibrium relationships between system variables. These findings are useful in studying the effectiveness of implemented traffic operation strategies and/or future planning of alternative strategies depending on equilibrium state of the traffic system.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to thank Dr. Fred Ohene, Deputy General Manager of the Regional Transportation Commission of Southern Nevada (RTC) for his comments and suggestions and for providing data.
References
Adolf, D. M., Lannon, L., and John, B. (2007). “Determining the effectiveness of HOV lanes.” ⟨http://www.path.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/publications/PRR-2007-17.pdf⟩ (Feb. 21, 2016).
Atherton, T. J., and Eder, E. S. (1982). “Houston north freeway contraflow lane demonstration.”, U.S. Dept. of Transportation, Cambridge, MA.
Banerjee, A., Dolado, J. J., Galbraith, W. J., and Hendry, F. D. (1993). Cointegration, error-correction, and the econometric analysis of non-stationary data, Oxford University Press, New York.
Becketti, S. (2013). Introduction to time series using Stata, 1st Ed., Stata Press Publication, College Station, TX.
Bowerman, B. L. (1993). Forecasting and time series: An applied approach, 3rd Ed., Duxbury Press, Belmont, CA.
Carson, J. L. (2005). “Monitoring and evaluating managed lane facility performance.”, Texas Transportation Institute, College Station, TX.
Cheteni, P. (2013). “Transport infrastructure investment and transport sector productivity on economic growth in South Africa (1975–2011).” Mediterranean J. Soc. Sci., 4(13), 761.
Dickey, A. D., and Fuller, A. W. (1979). “Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root.” J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 74(366a), 427–431.
Goran, N., and Rob, P. (2008). “Evaluating HOV plans and priorities: The case of expressways in the GTA.” ⟨http://conf.tac-atc.ca/english/resourcecentre/readingroom/conference/conf2008/docs/k2/Pringle.pdf⟩ (Feb. 21, 2016).
Johansen, S. (1995). “Likelihood-based inference in cointegrated vector autoregressive models.” Advanced texts in econometrics, Oxford University Press, Oxford, U.K.
Kohansal, R. M., and Torabi, S. (2015). “Investigating symmetrical and asymmetrical co-integration of the factors affecting the passenger rail demand in Tehran province.” Int. J. Acad. Res. Business Soc. Sci., 5(5), 70–80.
Koo, T. R. T., Tan, T. D., and Duval, T. D. (2013). “Direct air transport and demand interaction: A vector error correction approach.” J. Air Transp. Manage., 28, 14–19.
Los Angeles County. (2002). “HOV performance program.” ⟨http://media.metro.net/projects_studies/hov/images/hov_final_evaluation_report.pdf⟩ (Jul. 17, 2016).
Lutkepohl, H. (1993). Introduction to multiple time series analysis, 2nd Ed., Springer, Berlin.
Lutkepohl, H. (2005). New introduction to multiple time series, Springer, Berlin.
Ma, T., Zhou, Z., and Abdulhai, B. (2015). “Nonlinear multivariate time-space threshold vector error correction model for short term traffic state prediction.” Transp. Res. Part B: Methodol., 76, 27–47.
McQueen, J. T., Levinsonhn, D. M., Waksman, R., and Miller, G. K. (1974). “The evaluation of the Shirley highway express-bus-on-freeway demonstration project.” ⟨https://ia601300.us.archive.org/11/items/evaluationofshir7572mcqu/evaluationofshir7572mcqu.pdf⟩ (May 7, 2016).
Obenberger, J. (2004). “Public roads magazine. Managed lanes.” ⟨https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/publications/publicroads/04nov/08.cfm⟩ (Apr. 16, 2016).
Pankratz, A. (1983). Forecasting with univariate Box-Jenkins models, Wiley, New York.
Peter, T. M., Joseph, P., Pen, W., and Rob, L. (2004). “Evaluation of the effectiveness of high occupancy vehicle lanes.” ⟨http://www.mountain-plains.org/pubs/pdf/MPC04-158.pdf⟩ (Feb. 21, 2016).
Peterson, K. S., and Jessup, L. E. (2008). “Evaluating the relationship between transport infrastructure and economic activity: Evidence from Washington state.” J. Transp. Res. Forum, 47(2), 21–39.
Pfaff, B. (2008). Analysis of integrated and cointegrated time series with R, 2nd Ed., Springer, New York.
Romilly, P., Song, H., and Liu, X. (1997). “Modeling and forecasting car ownership in Britain: A cointegration and general to specific approach.” J. Transp. Econ. Policy, 32(2), 165–185.
RTC/FAST (Regional Transportation Commission of Southern Nevada/Freeway and Arterial System of Transportation). (2015). “FAST dashboard.” ⟨http://bugatti.nvfast.org/⟩ (Jun. 1, 2015).
Shahandashti, M. S., and Ashuri, B. (2015). “Highway construction cost forecasting using vector error correction models.” J. Manage. Eng., 04015040.
Shaw, T. (2003). “Performance measures of operational effectiveness for highway segments and systems.” ⟨http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/nchrp/nchrp_syn_311.pdf⟩ (Feb. 21, 2016).
Shen, S., Fowkes, T., Whiteing, T., and Johnson, D. (2009). “Econometric modelling and forecasting of freight transport demand in Great Britain.” Proc., European Transport Conf., National Academy of Sciences, Transportation Research International Documentation, Washington, DC.
STATA version 13 [Computer software]. StataCorp, College Station, TX.
Wooldridge, M. J. (2009). Introductory econometrics: A modern approach, 4th Ed., South-Western Cengage Learning, Mason, OH.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Transportation Engineering, Part A: Systems
Volume 144 • Issue 2 • February 2018
Copyright
©2017 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Feb 16, 2017
Accepted: Jun 27, 2017
Published online: Nov 22, 2017
Published in print: Feb 1, 2018
Discussion open until: Apr 22, 2018
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.