Regional Recovery Modeling and Postdisaster Model Updating: The Case of the 2010 Kraljevo Earthquake in Serbia
Publication: Journal of Structural Engineering
Volume 150, Issue 2
Abstract
Modeling disaster consequences and postdisaster recovery is a key enabler of holistic community disaster resilience planning and implementation. An important step toward the application of such models in practice consists in ensuring that model parameters can be reliably estimated, building trust in model outputs, as well as reducing output uncertainty. This study aims to tackle these issues first by constructing a regional housing recovery model and validating its results for a real event, the 2010 Kraljevo, Serbia earthquake, and second, by presenting how regional recovery models can be updated following a disaster using early-arriving damage inspection data to reduce output uncertainty. The model outputs are updated postevent using 600 building damage assessment reports, reducing the uncertainty in recovery time predictions. The results confirm the practical applicability of the proposed regional recovery model and postevent updating, while identifying its main shortcomings, such as the lack of consideration for the weather conditions affecting the recovery process and the need for better methods to estimate the community’s ability to mobilize its recovery resources.
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Data Availability Statement
Some or all data, models, or code used during the study were provided by a third party. Direct requests for these materials may be made to the provider as indicated in the Acknowledgments.
Acknowledgments
The case study presented in this paper would not be possible without the information provided by experts involved in the Kraljevo 2010 earthquake recovery; thus, the authors would like to thank Dragan Milivojević, Aleksandar Avramović, Zdravko Maksimović, Dejan Karapandžić, and Predrag Blagojević. Furthermore, the authors would like to thank the City of Kraljevo for sharing the GIS data. The work presented in this paper was financially supported by the Real-time Earthquake Risk Reduction for a Resilient Europe “RISE” project, financed under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program, under grant agreement No 821115, the ETH Risk Center project “DynaRisk,” financed under grant agreement ETH-11 18-1, and the ETH Chair of Structural Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering.
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Journal of Structural Engineering
Volume 150 • Issue 2 • February 2024
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This work is made available under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
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Received: Dec 16, 2022
Accepted: Sep 5, 2023
Published online: Nov 20, 2023
Published in print: Feb 1, 2024
Discussion open until: Apr 20, 2024
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