A Stochastic Tropical Cyclone Intensity Model for Wind Hazard Assessment Using the Geographically Weighted Summary Statistic Method
Publication: Journal of Structural Engineering
Volume 150, Issue 2
Abstract
In this study, a stochastic tropical cyclone (TC) intensity model based on a deterministic fast physics-based TC intensity model is developed for potential applications in the TC hazard assessment. To account for the effect of randomness, an error term is introduced to the ordinary differential equation for the TC intensity. The error term is assumed to be the summation of a mean part and a white noise. The geographically weighted summary statistics method is adopted to estimate the geographically varying mean and white noise intensity of the error term using the 1,010 historical tropical cyclone records from the western North Pacific. The effects of the mean and random parts of the error term on the model’s performance are investigated in terms of the individual samples and the probabilistic characteristics of TC intensity evolution. The results show that, by introducing the error term, the difference of the 25-, 50-, and 100-year recurrence interval values between the model and observation can be largely reduced from the level of 10% to less than 4%, validating the adequacy of the proposed model in the TC hazard assessment.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Data Availability Statement
Some or all data, models, or code that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Acknowledgments
The support received from the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China (Nos. JZ2022HGQA0168 and PA2022GDSK0063), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51978230), and the Natural Science Foundation of Anhui Province (No. 2108085J29) is highly appreciated.
References
Aiyyer, A., and C. Thorncroft. 2011. “Interannual-to-multidecadal variability of vertical shear and tropical cyclone activity.” J. Clim. 24 (12): 2949–2962. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3698.1.
Batts, M. E., E. Simiu, and L. R. Russell. 1980. “Hurricane wind speeds in the United States.” J. Struct. Div. 106 (10): 2001–2016. https://doi.org/10.1061/JSDEAG.0005541.
Brunsdon, C., A. S. Fotheringham, and M. Charlton. 2002. “Geographically weighted summary statistics—A framework for localised exploratory data analysis.” Comput. Environ. Urban Syst. 26 (6): 501–524. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0198-9715(01)00009-6.
Chen, Y., and Z. Duan. 2018. “A statistical dynamics track model of tropical cyclones for assessing typhoon wind hazard in the coast of southeast China.” J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerodyn. 172 (May): 325–340. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jweia.2017.11.014.
Compo, G. P., et al. 2011. “The twentieth century reanalysis project: The twentieth century reanalysis project.” Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 137 (654): 1–28. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.776.
Cui, W., L. Zhao, S. Cao, and Y. Ge. 2021. “Bayesian optimization of typhoon full-track simulation on the Northwestern Pacific segmented by QuadTree decomposition.” J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerodyn. 208 (Jun): 104428. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jweia.2020.104428.
Emanuel, K. 2012. “Self-stratification of tropical cyclone outflow. Part II: Implications for storm intensification.” J. Atmos. Sci. 69 (3): 988–996. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-11-0177.1.
Emanuel, K. 2017. “A fast intensity simulator for tropical cyclone risk analysis.” Nat. Hazards 88 (2): 779–796. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-2890-7.
Emanuel, K. A. 1987. “The dependence of hurricane intensity on climate.” Nature 326 (6112): 483–485. https://doi.org/10.1038/326483a0.
Fang, G., H. Chen, Z. Wei, Y. Wang, X. Wang, and C. Li. 2006. “Trends and interannual variability of the South China Sea surface winds, surface height, and surface temperature in the recent decade.” J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 111 (C11): 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JC003276.
Fang, G., W. Pang, L. Zhao, W. Cui, L. Zhu, S. Cao, and Y. Ge. 2021. “Extreme typhoon wind speed mapping for Coastal Region of China: Geographically weighted regression–based circular subregion algorithm.” J. Struct. Eng. 147 (Aug): 04021146. https://doi.org/10/gnktxj.
Fang, G., L. Zhao, S. Cao, Y. Ge, and W. Pang. 2018. “A novel analytical model for wind field simulation under typhoon boundary layer considering multi-field correlation and height-dependency.” J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerodyn. 175 (Feb): 77–89. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jweia.2018.01.019.
Gardiner, C. W. 1985. Vol. 3 of Handbook of stochastic methods, 2–20. Berlin: Springer.
Georgiou, P. N., A. G. Davenport, and B. J. Vickery. 1983. “Design wind speeds in regions dominated by tropical cyclones.” J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerodyn. 13 (1–3): 139–152. https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-6105(83)90136-8.
Gu, J. Y., C. Sheng, and H. P. Hong. 2020. “Comparison of tropical cyclone wind field models and their influence on estimated wind hazard.” Wind Struct. 31 (4): 321–334. https://doi.org/10.12989/was.2020.31.4.321.
Han, X., and P. E. Kloeden. 2017. Random ordinary differential equations and their numerical solution. New York: Springer.
Holland, G. J. 1980. “An analytic model of the wind and pressure profiles in hurricanes.” Mon. Weather Rev. 108 (8): 1212–1218. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1980)108%3C1212:AAMOTW%3E2.0.CO;2.
Hong, X., H. P. Hong, and J. Li. 2019. “Solution and validation of a three dimensional tropical cyclone boundary layer wind field model.” J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerodyn. 193 (Feb): 103973. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jweia.2019.103973.
Huang, M., Q. Wang, Q. Li, R. Jing, N. Lin, and L. Wang. 2021. “Typhoon wind hazard estimation by full-track simulation with various wind intensity models.” J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerodyn. 218 (Jun): 104792. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jweia.2021.104792.
Ishii, M., A. Shouji, S. Sugimoto, and T. Matsumoto. 2005. “Objective analyses of sea-surface temperature and marine meteorological variables for the 20th century using icoads and the Kobe collection.” Int. J. Climatol. 25 (7): 865–879. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1169.
Jing, R. Z., and N. Lin. 2019. “Tropical cyclone intensity evolution modeled as a dependent hidden markov process.” J. Clim. 32 (22): 7837–7855. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0027.1.
Kalnay, E., et al. 1996. “The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project.” Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 77 (3): 437–471. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077%3C0437:TNYRP%3E2.0.CO;2.
Kepert, J. 2001. “The dynamics of boundary layer jets within the tropical cyclone core. Part I: Linear theory.” J. Atmos. Sci. 58 (17): 2469–2484. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2001)058%3C2469:TDOBLJ%3E2.0.CO;2.
Kepert, J. D. 2010. “Slab-and height-resolving models of the tropical cyclone boundary layer. Part I: Comparing the simulations.” Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 136 (652): 1686–1699. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.667.
Khain, A. P., and I. Ginis. 1991. “The mutual response of a moving tropical cyclone and the ocean.” Beitr. Zur Phys. Atmosphäre 65 (Apr): 125–141.
Khare, S. P., A. Bonazzi, N. West, E. Bellone, and S. Jewson. 2009. “On the modelling of over-ocean hurricane surface winds and their uncertainty.” Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 135 (642): 1350–1365. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.442.
Knaff, J. A., and R. M. Zehr. 2007. “Reexamination of tropical cyclone wind–pressure relationships.” Weather Forecast. 22 (1): 71–88. https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF965.1.
Langousis, A., and D. Veneziano. 2009. “Theoretical model of rainfall in tropical cyclones for the assessment of long-term risk.” J. Geophys. Res. 114 (Jan): D02106. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010080.
Li, S. H., and H. P. Hong. 2015a. “Observations on a hurricane wind hazard model used to map extreme hurricane wind speed.” J. Struct. Eng. 141 (10): 04014238. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ST.1943-541X.0001217.
Li, S. H., and H. P. Hong. 2015b. “Use of historical best track data to estimate typhoon wind hazard at selected sites in China.” Nat. Hazards 76 (2): 1395–1414. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1555-z.
Li, S. H., and H. P. Hong. 2016. “Typhoon wind hazard estimation for China using an empirical track model.” Nat. Hazards 82 (Jun): 1009–1029. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2231-2.
Lin, N., and D. Chavas. 2012. “On hurricane parametric wind and applications in storm surge modeling.” J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 117 (D19): 1–19. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006884.
Lin, N., K. A. Emanuel, J. A. Smith, and E. Vanmarcke. 2010. “Risk assessment of hurricane storm surge for New York City.” J. Geophys. Res. 115 (Aug): D18121. https://doi.org/10/fpk3wd.
Lu, X., H. Yu, M. Ying, B. Zhao, S. Zhang, L. Lin, L. Bai, and R. Wan. 2021. “Western North Pacific tropical cyclone database created by the china meteorological administration.” Adv. Atmos. Sci. 38 (4): 690–699. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-020-0211-7.
Meng, Y., M. Matsui, and K. Hibi. 1995. “An analytical model for simulation of the wind field in a typhoon boundary layer.” J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerodyn. 56 (2–3): 291–310. https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-6105(94)00014-5.
MOHURD (Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of the People’s Republic of China). 2012. Load code for the design of building structures. GB 50009-2012. Beijing: China Architecture & Building Press.
Monterey, G., and S. Levitus. 1997. Vol. 5 of Climatological cycle of mixed layer depth in the world ocean. Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office.
Powell, M., G. Soukup, S. Cocke, S. Gulati, N. Morisseau-Leroy, S. Hamid, N. Dorst, and L. Axe. 2005. “State of Florida hurricane loss projection model: Atmospheric science component.” J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerodyn. 93 (8): 651–674. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jweia.2005.05.008.
Schwerdt, R. W., F. P. Ho, and R. R. Watkins. 1979. Meteorological criteria for standard project hurricane and probable maximum hurricane windfields, Gulf and East Coasts of the United States. Washington, DC: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Shen, Z., and K. Wei. 2021. “Stochastic model of tropical cyclones along China coast including the effects of spatial heterogeneity and ocean feedback.” Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 216 (Oct): 108000. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2021.108000.
Skamarock, W. C., et al. 2019. A description of the advanced research WRF model version 4 (Technical Notes No. NCAR/TN-556+STR). Boulder, CO: National Center for Atmospheric Research.
Snaiki, R., and T. Wu. 2017. “Modeling tropical cyclone boundary layer: Height-resolving pressure and wind fields.” J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerodyn. 170 (Aug): 18–27. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jweia.2017.08.005.
Snaiki, R., and T. Wu. 2019. “Knowledge-enhanced deep learning for simulation of tropical cyclone boundary-layer winds.” J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerodyn. 194 (May): 103983. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jweia.2019.103983.
Snaiki, R., and T. Wu. 2020. “Revisiting hurricane track model for wind risk assessment.” Struct. Saf. 87 (Jun): 102003. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2020.102003.
Sparks, P. R., and Z. Huang. 2001. “Gust factors and surface-to-gradient wind-speed ratios in tropical cyclones.” J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerodyn. 89 (11–12): 1047–1058. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-6105(01)00098-8.
Tian, Y., G. J. Huffman, R. F. Adler, L. Tang, M. Sapiano, V. Maggioni, and H. Wu. 2013. “Modeling errors in daily precipitation measurements: Additive or multiplicative?” Geophys. Res. Lett. 40 (10): 2060–2065. https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50320.
Vickery, P. J., P. F. Skerlj, and L. A. Twisdale. 2000. “Simulation of hurricane risk in the US using empirical track model.” J. Struct. Eng. 126 (Jun): 1222–1237. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9445(2000)126:10(1222).
Vickery, P. J., and D. Wadhera. 2008. “Statistical models of Holland pressure profile parameter and radius to maximum winds of hurricanes from flight-level pressure and H* Wind data.” J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol. 47 (10): 2497–2517. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JAMC1837.1.
Vickery, P. J., D. Wadhera, M. D. Powell, and Y. Chen. 2009a. “A hurricane boundary layer and wind field model for use in engineering applications.” J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol. 48 (2): 381–405. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JAMC1841.1.
Vickery, P. J., D. Wadhera, L. A. Twisdale Jr., and F. M. Lavelle. 2009b. “US hurricane wind speed risk and uncertainty.” J. Struct. Eng. 135 (3): 301–320. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9445(2009)135:3(301).
Wang, H., Q. Cheng, and R. Zuo. 2015. “Quantifying the spatial characteristics of geochemical patterns via GIS-based geographically weighted statistics.” J. Geochem. Explor. 157 (Apr): 110–119. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gexplo.2015.06.004.
Wang, H., and T. Wu. 2022. “Statistical investigation of wind duration using a refined hurricane track model.” J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerodyn. 221 (Sep): 104908. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jweia.2022.104908.
Xiao, Y. F., Z. D. Duan, Y. Q. Xiao, J. P. Ou, L. Chang, and Q. S. Li. 2011. “Typhoon wind hazard analysis for southeast China coastal regions.” Struct. Saf. 33 (4–5): 286–295. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2011.04.003.
Zeng, Z., Y. Wang, and L. Chen. 2010. “A statistical analysis of vertical shear effect on tropical cyclone intensity change in the North Atlantic.” Geophys. Res. Lett. 37 (2): 1–6. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL041788.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Structural Engineering
Volume 150 • Issue 2 • February 2024
Copyright
© 2023 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jul 12, 2022
Accepted: Sep 27, 2023
Published online: Nov 29, 2023
Published in print: Feb 1, 2024
Discussion open until: Apr 29, 2024
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.