Predicting Hydrological Droughts of Long-Narrow Type Drainage Basin Using Monte Carlo Technique
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 29, Issue 3
Abstract
Drought forecasting is a critical aspect of water resource management, where droughts have substantial economic and environmental impacts. This study employs a Monte Carlo–based approach, complemented by statistical distribution fitting and trend analysis, to forecast future streamflows on long-narrow type drainage basins. Therefore, the Kızılırmak River Basin in Turkey, which is a long and narrow type, has been selected to test the suggested method. Historical data are used to determine the best-fitting distributions, ensuring reliability in the selection of future streamflow scenarios also using trend analysis. The study reveals valuable insights into potential drought occurrences over the next 25 years, aiding decision makers in implementing water management strategies. Based on the analysis results, it is expected that the drought frequency is increased up to 64.7%. Drought severity is classified into different categories, offering an understanding of drought characteristics. The findings contribute to effective water resource planning by aiming the assessment of future hydrological droughts.
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Data Availability Statement
Some or all data, models, or code that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Acknowledgments
The author T. Baykal was supported by the Council of Higher Education’s 100/2000 Doctoral Scholarship.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 29 • Issue 3 • June 2024
Copyright
© 2024 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Aug 10, 2023
Accepted: Jan 26, 2024
Published online: Apr 13, 2024
Published in print: Jun 1, 2024
Discussion open until: Sep 13, 2024
ASCE Technical Topics:
- Basins
- Bodies of water (by type)
- Drainage basins
- Droughts
- Engineering fundamentals
- Flow (fluid dynamics)
- Fluid dynamics
- Fluid mechanics
- Forecasting
- Hydrologic engineering
- Mathematics
- Methodology (by type)
- Monte Carlo method
- Numerical methods
- Statistics
- Streamflow
- Water and water resources
- Water management
- Water policy
- Water resources
- Water shortage
- Water supply
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