Abstract
US probable maximum precipitation (PMP) estimation guidance fundamentally relies on the assumption that any change in precipitable water is consistent with the change in precipitation. While this assumption is theoretically sound in extreme storms that are convective in nature with lifting so vigorous as to convert all available atmospheric water vapor into precipitation, this type of storm rarely occurs in the Pacific Northwest of the United States; the assumption may be invalid. This study investigates the relationship between changes in precipitable water and changes in precipitation using high-resolution model-based precipitation maximization for a large number of atmospheric river (AR) events impacting the Columbia River Basin (CRB) in the Pacific Northwest. Analysis indicates that the relationship between changes in precipitable water and changes in precipitation cannot be simply approximated as either (i.e., consistent) or a linear relationship (; ). Our analysis on the precipitation maximization results showed that the horizontal wind speed at 10m plays an important role in determining the relationship between these changes. The relationship between integrated water vapor transport (IVT) change and precipitation change was found to be stronger () and statistically significant () for storms impacting the CRB, which was approximated as precipitation change = 2.0 × IVT change . Our finding underscores the importance of considering not only atmospheric water vapor amounts but also the accompanying flows transporting atmospheric water vapor, in maximizing precipitation depths over a target region.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Data Availability Statement
Some or all data, models, or code that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Acknowledgments
This study was supported by US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Grant 3-20B35-Department of Army Engi-W912HZ-17-2-0001. During the reported study, Yusuke Hiraga was at Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Davis.
References
Abbs, D. J. 1999. “A numerical modeling study to investigate the assumptions used in the calculation of probable maximum precipitation.” Water Resour. Res. 35 (3): 785–796. https://doi.org/10.1029/1998WR900013.
Allen, M. R., and W. J. Ingram. 2002. “Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle.” Nature 419 (6903): 224–232. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature01092.
AMS (American Meteorological Society). 2022. “Atmospheric river, glossary of meteorology.” Accessed June 16, 2023. https://glossary.ametsoc.org/wiki/Atmospheric_river.
Barth, N. A., G. Villarini, M. A. Nayak, and K. White. 2017. “Mixed populations and annual flood frequency estimates in the western United States: The role of atmospheric rivers.” Water Resour. Res. 53 (1): 257–269. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016WR019064.
Chen, L., and A. A. Bradley. 2003. “The dependence of the moisture maximization in PMP procedures on spatial scale.” In Proc., 17th Conf. on Hydrology. Boston: American Meteorological Society.
Compo, G. P., et al. 2011. “The twentieth century reanalysis project.” Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 137 (654): 1–28. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.776.
Dettinger, M. D., F. M. Ralph, T. Das, P. J. Neiman, and D. R. Cayan. 2011. “Atmospheric rivers, floods and the water resources of California.” Water 3 (2): 445–478. https://doi.org/10.3390/w3020445.
Ek, M. B., K. E. Mitchell, Y. Lin, E. Rogers, P. Grunmann, V. Koren, G. Gayno, and J. D. Tarpley. 2003. “Implementation of Noah land surface model advances in the national centers for environmental prediction operational mesoscale Eta model.” J. Geophys. Res. D Atmos. 108 (22): 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1029/2002jd003296.
FWEE (Foundation for Water & Energy Education). 2022. “What makes the Columbia river basin unique and how we benefit.” Accessed June 16, 2023. https://fwee.org/environment/resources/what-makes-the-columbia-river-basin-unique-and-how-we-benefit/.
Gimeno, L., R. Nieto, M. Vázquez, and D. A. Lavers. 2014. “Atmospheric rivers: A mini-review.” Front. Earth Sci. 2 (Mar): 2. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2014.00002.
Hansen, E. M., D. D. Fenn, P. Corrigan, J. L. Vogel, L. C. Schreiner, and R. W. Stodt. 1994. Probable maximum precipitation–Pacific Northwest states: Columbia River (including portions of Canada), Snake River and Pacific coastal drainages. Silver Spring, MD: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Hershfield, D. M. 1961. “Estimating the probable maximum precipitation.” J. Hydraul. Div. 87 (5): 99–116. https://doi.org/10.1061/JYCEAJ.0000651.
Hershfield, D. M. 1965. “Method for estimating probable maximum rainfall.” J. Am. Water Works Assoc. 57 (8): 965–972. https://doi.org/10.1002/j.1551-8833.1965.tb01486.x.
Hiraga, Y., Y. Iseri, M. D. Warner, C. D. Frans, A. M. Duren, J. F. England, and L. Kavvas. 2023a. “Comparison of numerical weather model-based precipitation maximization methods: Moisture optimization method, storm transposition method, and their combination.” J. Hydrol. Eng. 28 (1): 04022033. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0002234.
Hiraga, Y., Y. Iseri, M. D. Warner, C. D. Frans, A. M. Duren, J. F. England, and L. Kavvas. 2023b. “Maximization of Precipitation Sequences during wintertime in the Columbia River Basin and its analysis.” J. JSCE 12 (2): 16005. https://doi.org/10.2208/journalofjsce.23-16005.
Hiraga, Y., Y. Iseri, M. D. Warner, C. D. Frans, A. M. Duren, J. F. England, and M. L. Kavvas. 2021. “Estimation of long-duration maximum precipitation during a winter season for large basins dominated by atmospheric rivers using a numerical weather model.” J. Hydrol. 598 (Jul): 126224. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126224.
Houze, R. 1993. “Clous dynamics.” In Thunderstorms. London: Academic Press.
Iacono, M. J., J. S. Delamere, E. J. Mlawer, M. W. Shephard, S. A. Clough, and W. D. Collins. 2008. “Radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases: Calculations with the AER radiative transfer models.” J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 113 (13): 2–9. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD009944.
Ishida, K., M. L. Kavvas, S. Jang, Z. Q. Chen, N. Ohara, and M. L. Anderson. 2015. “Physically based estimation of maximum precipitation over three watersheds in Northern California: Atmospheric boundary condition shifting.” J. Hydrol. Eng. 20 (4): 04014052. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001026.
Janjić, Z. I. 1994. “The Step-mountain eta coordinate model: Further developments of the convection, viscous sublayer, and turbulence closure schemes.” Mon. Weather Rev. 122 (5): 927–945. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1994)122%3C0927:TSMECM%3E2.0.CO;2.
Knippertz, P., and H. Wernli. 2010. “A Lagrangian climatology of tropical moisture exports to the northern hemispheric extratropics.” J. Clim. 23 (4): 987–1003. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3333.1.
Lin, Y., and B. A. Colle. 2011. “A new bulk microphysical scheme that includes riming intensity and temperature-dependent ice characteristics.” Mon. Weather Rev. 139 (3): 1013–1035. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3293.1.
National Research Council. 2004. Managing the Columbia river: Instream flows, water withdrawals, and salmon survival. Washington, DC: National Academies Press.
Neiman, P. J., F. M. Ralph, G. A. Wick, J. D. Lundquist, and M. D. Dettinger. 2008. “Meteorological characteristics and overland precipitation impacts of atmospheric rivers affecting the West coast of North America based on eight years of SSM/I satellite observations.” J. Hydrometeorol. 9 (1): 22–47. https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JHM855.1.
Ohara, N., M. L. Kavvas, S. Kure, Z. Chen, S. Jang, and E. Tan. 2011. “Physically based estimation of maximum precipitation over American River Watershed, California.” J. Hydrol. Eng. 16 (4): 351–361. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000324.
Ralph, F. M., T. Coleman, P. J. Neiman, R. J. Zamora, and M. D. Dettinger. 2013. “Observed impacts of duration and seasonality of atmospheric-river landfalls on soil moisture and runoff in coastal northern California.” J. Hydrometeorol. 14 (2): 443–459. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-12-076.1.
Ralph, F. M., P. J. Neiman, and G. A. Wick. 2004. “Satellite and CALJET aircraft observations of atmospheric rivers over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean during the winter of 1997/98.” Mon. Weather Rev. 132 (7): 1721–1745. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132%3C1721:SACAOO%3E2.0.CO;2.
Ralph, F. M., P. J. Neiman, G. A. Wick, S. I. Gutman, M. D. Dettinger, D. R. Cayan, and A. B. White. 2006. “Flooding on California’s Russian river: Role of atmospheric rivers.” Geophys. Res. Lett. 33 (13): L13801. https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026689.
Rastogi, D., S. C. Kao, M. Ashfaq, R. Mei, E. D. Kabela, S. Gangrade, B. S. Naz, B. L. Preston, N. Singh, and V. G. Anantharaj. 2017. “Effects of climate change on probable maximum precipitation: A sensitivity study over the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin.” J. Geophys. Res. 122 (9): 4808–4828. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD026001.
Rutz, J. J., W. James Steenburgh, and F. Martin Ralph. 2014. “Climatological characteristics of atmospheric rivers and their inland penetration over the western united states.” Mon. Weather Rev. 142 (2): 905–921. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00168.1.
Saha, S., et al. 2010. “The NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis.” Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 91 (8): 1015–1057. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010BAMS3001.1.
Shapiro, S. S., and M. B. Wilk. 1965. “An analysis of variance test for normality (complete samples).” Biometrika 52 (3–4): 591–611. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/52.3-4.591.
Showalter, A. K., and S. B. Solot. 1942. “Computation of maximum possible precipitation.” EOS Trans. Am. Geophys. Union 23 (2): 258–274. https://doi.org/10.1029/TR023i002p00258.
Skamarock, W. C., J. B. Klemp, J. Dudhi, D. O. Gill, D. M. Barker, M. G. Duda, X.-Y. Huang, W. Wang, and J. G. Powers. 2008. A description of the advanced research WRF Version 3, 1–83. Boulder, CO: Univ. Corporation for Atmospheric Research. https://doi.org/10.5065/D68S4MVH.
Stanford, J. A., S. V. Gregory, F. R. Hauer, and E. B. Snyder. 2005. “Columbia River Basin.” In Rivers of North America, edited by A. C. Benke, and C. E. Cushing, 591–653. Amsterdam, Netherlands: Elsevier Academic Press.
Toride, K., Y. Iseri, M. D. Warner, C. D. Frans, A. M. Duren, J. F. England, and M. L. Kavvas. 2019. “Model-based probable maximum precipitation estimation: How to estimate the worst-case scenario induced by atmospheric rivers?” J. Hydrometeorol. 20 (Jun): 2383–2400. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-19-0039.1.
Trenberth, K. E. 1999. “Conceptual framework for changes of extremes of the hydrological cycle with climate change.” Clim. Change 42 (1): 327–339. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005488920935.
Trinh, T., Y. Iseri, A. J. Diaz, E. D. Snider, M. L. Anderson, and M. L. Kavvas. 2022. “Maximization of historical storm events over seven watersheds in Central/Southern Sierra Nevada by means of atmospheric boundary condition shifting and relative humidity optimization methods.” J. Hydrol. Eng. 27 (3): 04021051. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0002159.
USBR (US Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation). 2016. Secure water act section 9503(c) report to congress Chapter 4: Columbia River basin. Washington, DC: USBR.
Virtanen, P., R. Gommers, and T. E. Oliphant. 2020. “SciPy 1.0: Fundamental algorithms for scientific computing in Python.” Nat. Methods 17 (3): 261–272. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41592-019-0686-2.
Warner, M. D., C. F. Mass, and E. P. Salatheé. 2012. “Wintertime extreme precipitation events along the Pacific Northwest Coast: Climatology and synoptic evolution.” Mon. Weather Rev. 140 (7): 2021–2043. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00197.1.
WMO (World Meteorological Organization). 2009. “Manual on estimation of probable maximum precipitation (PMP).” Accessed September 13, 2023. https://library.wmo.int/records/item/35708-manual-on-estimation-of-probable-maximum-precipitation-pmp.
Yang, L., and J. Smith. 2018. “Sensitivity of extreme rainfall to atmospheric moisture content in the arid/Semiarid Southwestern United States: Implications for probable maximum precipitation estimates.” J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 123 (3): 1638–1656. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027850.
Zhang, G. J., and N. A. McFarlane. 1995. “Sensitivity of climate simulations to the parameterization of cumulus convection in the Canadian climate centre general circulation model.” Atmos. Ocean 33 (Jun): 407–446. https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.1995.9649539.
Zhao, W., J. A. Smith, and A. A. Bradley. 1997. “Numerical simulation of a heavy rainfall event during the PRE-STORM experiment.” Water Resour. Res. 33 (4): 783–799. https://doi.org/10.1029/96WR03036.
Zhu, Y., and R. E. Newell. 1998. “A proposed algorithm for moisture fluxes from atmospheric rivers.” Mon. Weather Rev. 126 (3): 725–735. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126%3C0725:APAFMF%3E2.0.CO;2.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Copyright
© 2024 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Sep 13, 2023
Accepted: Jan 22, 2024
Published online: Apr 15, 2024
Published in print: Jun 1, 2024
Discussion open until: Sep 15, 2024
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.
Cited by
- Yusuke Hiraga, Yoshihiko Iseri, Michael D. Warner, Angela M. Duren, John F. England, Chris D. Frans, M. Levent Kavvas, Model‐based estimation of long‐duration design precipitation for basins with large storage volumes of reservoirs and snowpacks, Journal of Flood Risk Management, 10.1111/jfr3.12992, (2024).