A Structural Equation Model to Analyze the Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic Risks on Project Success: Contractors’ Perspectives
Publication: ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Volume 9, Issue 3
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to capture the direct and indirect effects of COVID-19 emerging risks on construction projects’ success in developing countries from the contractors’ perspective. To achieve this, we collected data from Iraqi construction industry and conducted the following multistage research methodology: (1) preliminary investigation with four construction contractors to identify the success indicators of construction projects; (2) focus group session with 11 experts to identify the COVID-19 emerging risks for the construction industry; (3) semistructured interviews with seven construction experts to develop several hypotheses on the effect of COVID-19 emerging risks on project success; (4) survey data collection from 99 construction contractors; and (5) development of a structural equation model (SEM) to analyze the effects of COVID-19 emerging risks on project success. The results of the SEM analysis show that financial market (FM)–related risks, supply chain operations (SCO)–related risks, health and safety of construction workforce (HSCW)–related risks, organizational implications (OI)–related risks, and contractual implications (CI)–related risks have a significant impact on construction projects success. CI-related risks have the strongest total effects on project success, followed by OI-related risks, FM-related risks, HSCW-related risks, and SCO-related risks, respectively. The results also emphasis the significant mediation role of CI between COVID-19 emerging risks and project success. This study contributes to the body of knowledge and contracting companies by helping researchers and construction contractors to better understand how the key risk factors emerging from extreme conditions like the COVID-19 pandemic affect construction projects’ success and may serve as a guideline for developing effective response strategies.
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Data Availability Statement
All data generated or analyzed during the study are included in the published paper.
Acknowledgments
This research is part of the first author’s Ph.D. thesis conducted at the University of Southampton, UK.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Volume 9 • Issue 3 • September 2023
Copyright
© 2023 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Sep 29, 2022
Accepted: Feb 9, 2023
Published online: May 23, 2023
Published in print: Sep 1, 2023
Discussion open until: Oct 23, 2023
ASCE Technical Topics:
- Business management
- Construction engineering
- Construction management
- Construction methods
- Contracts and subcontracts
- Disaster risk management
- Engineering fundamentals
- Epidemic and pandemic
- Health hazards
- Models (by type)
- Practice and Profession
- Project management
- Public administration
- Public health and safety
- Risk management
- Structural models
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- M. K. S. Al-Mhdawi, Mario Brito, B. S. Onggo, Abroon Qazi, Alan O’Connor, Mostafa Namian, Construction Risk Management in Iraq during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Challenges to Implementation and Efficacy of Practices, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 10.1061/JCEMD4.COENG-13099, 149, 9, (2023).