Durability Life Prediction of Reinforced Concrete Structure Corroded by Chloride Based on the Gamma Process
Publication: ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Volume 7, Issue 4
Abstract
In this paper, a new method for durability life prediction of reinforced concrete structures in a chlorine-eroded environment is presented based on the Gamma process. The Gamma process model is established based on the simulation data of chloride ion concentration on the surface of reinforced concrete structures, and the life of reinforced concrete structures is predicted. First, according to the chloride diffusion theory, through using the finite difference chloride diffusion model proposed in this paper under the action of multiple factors, a group of reinforced concrete reinforcement surface chloride concentration data are simulated using MATLAB. Similarly, the durability life data of reinforced concrete structures are simulated using the Monte Carlo method. Furthermore, a Gamma process model is developed based on the simulation data, and the life of a reinforced concrete structure is predicted based on the Gamma process. Finally, the correctness of the proposed method is verified through comparing the curve diagram of probability density function of the durability life of the Gamma process and the frequency histogram of the durability life obtained by the Monte Carlo simulation.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Data Availability Statement
All data, models, and code generated or used during the study appear in the published paper.
Acknowledgments
This work was jointly supported by the Research Project of the Educational Commission of Hunan Province (Grant No. 19B020), and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 51678067 and 51808054).
References
Abdel-Hameed, M. 1975. “A Gamma wear process.” IEEE Trans. Reliab. 24 (2): 152–153. https://doi.org/10.1002/qre.2329.
Andrade, C., M. A. Climent, and G. De Vera. 2015. “Procedure for calculating the chloride diffusion coefficient and surface concentration from a profile having a maximum beyond the concrete surface.” Mater. Struct. 48 (4): 863–869. https://doi.org/10.1617/s11527-015-0543-4.
Bentz, E. C., and M. D. A. Thomas. 2013. Life-365 service life prediction model and computer program for predicting the service life and life-cycle costs of reinforced concrete exposed to chlorides. Farmington Hills, MI: Concrete International.
Bitaraf, M., and S. Mohammadi. 2008. “Analysis of chloride diffusion in concrete structures for prediction of initiation time of corrosion using a new meshless approach.” Constr. Build. Mater. 22 (4): 546–556. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.conbuildmat.2006.11.005.
Chidiac, S. E., and M. Shafikhani. 2019. “Phenomenological model for quantifying concrete chloride diffusion coefficient.” Constr. Build. Mater. 224 (Nov): 773–784. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.conbuildmat.2019.07.006.
Cinlar, E., Z. P. Bazant, and E. Osman. 1977. “Stochastic process for extrapolating concrete creep.” J. Eng. Mech. Div. 103 (6): 1069–1088. https://doi.org/10.1243/03093247V124339.
Costa, A., and J. Appleton. 1999. “Chloride penetration into concrete in marine environment—Part II: Prediction of long term chloride penetration.” Mater. Struct. 32 (5): 354–359. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02479627.
Francis, R. A., and N. O. Attoh-Okine. 2018. “Uncertainty analysis and decision-making in infrastructure systems under climate change.” ASCE-ASME J. Risk Uncertainty Eng. Syst. Part A: Civ. Eng. 4 (1): 02017002. https://doi.org/10.1061/ajrua6.0000951.
Giorgio, M., M. Guida, F. Postiglione, and G. Pulcini. 2018. “Bayesian estimation and prediction for the transformed Gamma degradation process.” Qual. Reliab. Eng. Int. 34 (7): 1315–1328. https://doi.org/10.1002/qre.2329.
Han, S. H. 2007. “Influence of diffusion coefficient on chloride ion penetration of concrete structure.” Constr. Build. Mater. 21 (2): 370–378. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.conbuildmat.2005.08.011.
Kallen, M. J., and J. M. Van Noortwijk. 2005. “Optimal maintenance decisions under imperfect inspection.” Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 90 (2–3): 177–185. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2004.10.004.
Kirkpatrick, T. J., R. E. Weyers, M. C. Anderson-Cook, and M. M. Sprinkel. 2002. “Probabilistic model for the chloride-induced corrosion service life of bridge decks.” Cem. Concr. Res. 32 (12): 1943–1960. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0008-8846(02)00905-5.
Kwon, S. J., U. J. Na, S. S. Park, and S. H. Jung. 2009. “Service life prediction of concrete wharves with early-aged crack: Probabilistic approach for chloride diffusion.” Struct. Saf. 31 (1): 75–83. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2008.03.004.
Lawless, J., and M. Crowder. 2004. “Covariates and random effects in a Gamma process model with application to degradation and failure.” Lifetime Data Anal. 10 (3): 213–227. https://doi.org/10.1023/B:LIDA.0000036389.14073.dd.
Li, D. W., L. Y. Li, and X. F. Wang. 2019a. “Chloride diffusion model for concrete in marine environment with considering binding effect.” Mar. Struct. 66 (Jul): 44–51. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marstruc.2019.03.004.
Li, D. W., X. F. Wang, and L. Y. Li. 2019b. “An analytical solution for chloride diffusion in concrete with considering binding effect.” Ocean Eng. 191 (Nov): 106549. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2019.106549.
Nathan, D. S., T. L. Bergman, and W. V. Srubar. 2018. “Numerical service-life modeling of chloride-induced corrosion in recycled-aggregate concrete.” Constr. Build. Mater. 161 (Feb): 236–245. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.conbuildmat.2017.11.084.
National Standard of the People’s Republic of China. 2019. Evaluation standard for durability of existing structural concrete. GB/T 51355-2019. Beijing: China Building Industry Press.
Nicolai, R. P., R. Dekker, and J. M. Van Noortwijk. 2007. “A comparison of models for measurable deterioration: An application to coatings on steel structures.” Reliab. Eng. Syst. Safe. 92 (12): 1635–1650.
Petcherdchoo, A. 2013. “Time dependent models of apparent diffusion coefficient and surface chloride for chloride transport in fly ash concrete.” Constr. Build. Mater. 38 (Jan): 497–507. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.conbuildmat.2012.08.041.
Rodríguez-Picón, L. A., A. P. Rodríguez-Picón, L. C. Méndez-González, M. I. Rodríguez-Borbón, and A. Alvarado-Iniesta. 2017. “Degradation modeling based on Gamma process models with random effects.” Commun. Stat.-Simul. Comput. 47 (6): 1796–1801. https://doi.org/10.1080/03610918.2017.1324981.
Sabine, C. 2003. “Influence of aggregates on chloride diffusion coefficient into mortar.” Cem. Concr. Res. 33 (7): 1021–1028. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0008-8846(03)00009-7.
Shen, X. W., H. W. Hu, X. B. Li, and S. Li. 2021. “Study on PCA-SAFT imaging using leaky Rayleigh waves.” Measurement 170: 108708. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.measurement.2020.108708.
Song, H. W., H. B. Shim, A. Petcherdchoo, and S. K. Park. 2009. “Service life prediction of repaired concrete structures under chloride environment using finite difference method.” Cem. Concr. Compos. 31 (2): 120–127. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cemconcomp.2008.11.002.
Standard of China Civil Engineering Society. 2005. Guidelines for durability design and construction of concrete structures. Beijing: China Building Industry Press.
Tongning, C., Z. Lijuan, S. Guowen, W. Caihui, Z. Ying, W. Pengshuo, and X. Aoxue. 2020. “Simulation of chloride ion transport in concrete under the coupled effects of a bending load and drying–wetting cycles.” Constr. Build. Mater. 241 (Apr): 118045. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.conbuildmat.2020.118045.
Val, D. V., and P. A. Trapper. 2008. “Probabilistic evaluation of initiation time of chloride-induced corrosion.” Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 93 (3): 364–372. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2006.12.010.
van Noortwijk, J. M. 2009. “A survey of the application of Gamma processes in maintenance.” Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 94 (1): 2–21. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2007.03.019.
Violetta, B. 2002. “Life-365 service life prediction model.” Concr. Int. 24 (12): 53–57. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cja.2014.12.015.
Wang, H., J. P. Li, L. Li, and H. H. Chen. 2018. “Service life of underground concrete pipeline with original incomplete cracks in chlorinated soils: Theoretical prediction.” Constr. Build. Mater. 188 (Nov): 1166–1178. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.conbuildmat.2018.08.184.
Wang, H. W., T. X. Xu, and Q. L. Mi. 2015. “Lifetime prediction based on Gamma processes from accelerated degradation data.” Chin. J. Aeronaut. 28 (1): 172–179. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cja.2014.12.015.
Wu, J., H. M. Li, Z. Wang, and J. J. Liu. 2016. “Transport model of chloride ions in concrete under loads and drying-wetting cycles.” Constr. Build. Mater. 112 (Jun): 733–738. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.conbuildmat.2016.02.167.
Zhang, W., Z. L. Dong, and H. Lv. 2009. “Two-dimensional diffusion model of chloride ion in concrete and its engineering verification.” [In Chinese.] Port Waterway Eng. 4 (6): 35–39. https://doi.org/10.16233/j.cnki.issn1002-4972.2009.06.034.
Zhang, Z. H., W. B. Li, and J. Y. Yang. 2021. “Analysis of stochastic process to model safety risk in construction industry.” J. Civ. Eng. Manage. 27 (2): 87–99. https://doi.org/10.3846/jcem.2021.14108.
Zhang, Z. H., M. l. Zhou, and M. Fang. 2019. “First-passage probability analysis of Wiener process using different methods and its applications in the evaluation of structural durability degradation.” Eur. J. Environ. Civ. Eng. https://doi.org/10.1080/19648189.2019.1601134.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Volume 7 • Issue 4 • December 2021
Copyright
© 2021 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Dec 23, 2020
Accepted: Jun 17, 2021
Published online: Aug 28, 2021
Published in print: Dec 1, 2021
Discussion open until: Jan 28, 2022
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.
Cited by
- Lei Zhang, Xiaoxiong Zha, Jiaqian Ning, Wentao Li, Research Status on the Application Technology of Early Age Carbon Dioxide Curing, Buildings, 10.3390/buildings13040957, 13, 4, (957), (2023).
- Bingchen Dong, Zhenglin Liang, Modeling Stochastic Deterioration by Chloride Ion Erosion Through Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics, 2023 IEEE 23rd International Conference on Software Quality, Reliability, and Security Companion (QRS-C), 10.1109/QRS-C60940.2023.00113, (257-262), (2023).
- Cao Wang, Hao Zhang, Michael Beer, Structural Time-Dependent Reliability Assessment: Advanced Approaches for Engineered Structures, ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering, 10.1061/AJRUA6.RUENG-1010, 9, 1, (2023).
- S.K. Kirthika, Gaurav Goel, Allan Matthews, Saurav Goel, Review of the untapped potentials of antimicrobial materials in the construction sector, Progress in Materials Science, 10.1016/j.pmatsci.2022.101065, 133, (101065), (2023).
- Taisen Zhao, Yi Zhang, Kefei Li, Junjie Wang, Enjian Cai, Guangwei Lin, Zhaoyan Li, A copula approach in the probabilistic evaluation of chloride ingress process for coastal concrete structures, Structures, 10.1016/j.istruc.2023.104918, 56, (104918), (2023).
- Zhenhao Zhang, Xiaoxu Ren, Qinglei Niu, Yi Zhang, Bing Zhao, Durability degradation simulation of RC structure based on gamma process considering two-dimensional chloride diffusion and life probabilistic prediction, Structures, 10.1016/j.istruc.2022.12.059, 48, (159-171), (2023).
- Moein Khoshroo, Parviz Ghoddousi, Minimizing the negative impacts of rebar stored in the Persian Gulf on reinforced concrete corrosion, Construction and Building Materials, 10.1016/j.conbuildmat.2022.129749, 363, (129749), (2023).
- Tianda Yu, Hao Wu, Xinan Chen, Jiankai Tang, Guo‐Zhong Fu, Degradation‐based reliability analysis of magnetic jack type control rod drive mechanism, Quality and Reliability Engineering International, 10.1002/qre.3148, 39, 8, (3369-3384), (2022).