Long-Term Projections of Domestic Water Demand: A Case Study of London and the Thames Valley
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 145, Issue 11
Abstract
This case study implements long-term projections of domestic water demand for a UK water company, Thames Water. Projections of per household consumption (PHC) and households were combined to yield future demand. Regression models predicted PHC using the determinants of occupancy, property type, ethnicity and rateable value, drawing on 2006–2015 domestic water-use data as a baseline. A model was developed for diffusing savings in per capita consumption (PCC), drawn from published studies of interventions. PCC declines were converted to PHC reductions using baseline ratios. Interventions were grouped into Business as Usual, Light Green (limited intervention), and Dark Green (extreme intervention) scenarios. Projected households were generated by property type, occupancy, and ethnicity for Thames Water’s resource zones for 2011 to 2101 and multiplied by projected PHCs to yield water-demand projections. By 2101, the 2011 water demand of 1,225 million liters a day grew 90% under Business as Usual, 69% under Light Green, and 46% under Dark Green.
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Data Availability Statement
Data, models, and code used in this study are available from third parties, the authors, and online. These files, in addition to Tables S1 and S2 and Figs. S1–S3, can be accessed at http://archive.researchdata.leeds.ac.uk/466/.
Acknowledgments
The research reported in this paper was funded by Thames Water Utilities Limited though a Collaborative Research Agreement with the University of Leeds for the project Long-Term Population and Property Forecasts for Thames Water, June 1, 2016 to September 30, 2017. Thames Water provided confidential access to their Domestic Water User Survey anonymised dataset and gave valuable advice on the research at six meetings over the course of the project. Rizwan Nawaz received support from the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council under Grant No. EP/I029346/1. Stephen Clark was supported by a grant from the Economic and Social Research Council (Grant No. ES/L011891/1). The population projections were developed under Economic and Social Research Council Grant No. ES/L013878/1 (NewETHPOP). The Principal Investigator was Philip Rees.
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Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 145 • Issue 11 • November 2019
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©2019 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Received: May 22, 2018
Accepted: Jan 14, 2019
Published online: Sep 14, 2019
Published in print: Nov 1, 2019
Discussion open until: Feb 14, 2020
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