Adjusting Flood Peak Frequency Changes to Account for Climate Change Impacts in the Western United States
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 144, Issue 3
Abstract
One consistent projection for the western United States has been for increasing peak streamflow as the global climate warms. Although past studies have characterized some aspects of future streamflow projections, this effort exploits new data sources to estimate changing peak flow frequency based on output from many climate projections, which drive a physically-based hydrology model. Using historic and projected future streamflow simulations at 421 sites across the western United States, changes in peak flows for common recurrence intervals are estimated. A parameter relating the recurrence interval needed for design in the present to produce a future required recurrence interval is derived and mapped across the United States, illustrating a method for adapting design to a changing hydrologic setting. For this demonstration, using a higher business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions pathway, peak flow increases were proportionately larger for the more rare 100-year (or 1% exceedance) event than the 10-year event. Compared to 1971–2000, the domain-wide peak flow magnitude is projected to increase by 14–19% for early 21st century and 31–43% by the end of the 21st century, depending on recurrence interval. Impacts under lower emissions pathways will be more modest (or occur further in the future). In terms of return period, by the end of the 21st century, the 100-year event of the late twentieth century is projected to be approximately a 40-year event, representing a 2.5-fold increase in occurrence probability. This approach offers a strategy for regional planners to incorporate these projected changes into design based on flood flow frequency.
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Acknowledgments
The authors acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and thank the climate modeling groups (listed in Table 1 of this paper) for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP the U.S. Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. The authors are grateful to the U.S. Department of Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, which has made available projected streamflow data for the western United States developed through its West-Wide Climate Risk Assessment effort.
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Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 144 • Issue 3 • March 2018
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©2017 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jan 23, 2017
Accepted: Sep 5, 2017
Published online: Dec 29, 2017
Published in print: Mar 1, 2018
Discussion open until: May 29, 2018
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