Multiperiod Planning of Water Supply Infrastructure Based on Scenario Analysis
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 140, Issue 1
Abstract
Long-range infrastructure planning is fraught with uncertainties. Population growth may occur faster or slower than expected, regulations may change, and public sentiment can shift. In the face of these uncertainties, water system managers must plan for large infrastructure investments and the questions about when it is desirable to invest in infrastructure and what is the appropriate infrastructure component size to meet growing demands. One of the most powerful and intuitive ways to incorporate uncertainties is to use scenarios that represent plausible futures. Scenario-based planning is gaining acceptance in the water resources community. Preparing for a range of possible futures provides flexibility and adds robustness to the system so it can respond to uncertain events at reasonable costs while maintaining community confidence in their utilities. In this paper, novel scenario-based planning and optimization approaches are presented for the optimal design of regional-scale water supply infrastructure in a multiperiod planning framework. For demonstration, water demand projections are considered as uncertain and multiperiod construction projects are selected to minimize the economic costs. The solution approaches are applied to a decentralized water reclamation planning project in a green-field development area in southeast Tucson, Arizona, where water reclamation is viewed as a potential component for a sustainable water supply.
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Acknowledgments
This material is based in part upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. 083590. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.
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Information & Authors
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Published In
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 140 • Issue 1 • January 2014
Pages: 40 - 54
Copyright
© 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Dec 12, 2011
Accepted: Sep 10, 2012
Published online: Sep 13, 2012
Discussion open until: Feb 13, 2013
Published in print: Jan 1, 2014
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