Agriculture Vulnerability to Climate Change in a Snowmelt-Driven Basin in Semiarid Chile
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 138, Issue 5
Abstract
The Limarí River basin is one of the most important watersheds in north-central Chile (30°S). Its headwaters lie at the top of the subtropical Andes ( above sea level) and the river flows westward into the Pacific Ocean over a length of approximately 200 km. This basin has a marked snowmelt-driven hydrological regime and, in spite of the arid conditions that characterize this region, holds more than 50,000 ha of highly productive agricultural land thanks to its irrigation infrastructure and three interconnected reservoirs. Like many semiarid regions around the world, north-central Chile is expected to become warmer and drier during the 21st century as a consequence of ongoing anthropogenic climate change. The associated reduction in streamflow, changes in hydrograph timing, and enhanced evapotranspiration will undoubtedly threaten agriculture in the Limarí basin and elsewhere in semiarid Chile. In this paper, the effect of temperature and precipitation on surface hydrology, performance of water infrastructure, and irrigation coverage in the Limarí basin is investigated by using the water evaluation and planning (WEAP) model. WEAP was calibrated by using current climate and agriculture patterns, and then forced with a set of 30-year-long climate scenarios, each of them obtained by adding a temperature and precipitation perturbation to the historical time series. This delta approach allows (1) determination of the sensitivity of selected variables to climate change, and (2) obtaining a projection of the effects in irrigation coverage expected for the near and far future (2010–2040 and 2070–2100, respectively). Both aspects are investigated for agricultural districts with varying access to irrigation infrastructure and groundwater; this exercise highlights the relevance of added storage and innovative conjunctive use of surface and groundwater resources for improving the resilience and adaptability of irrigated agriculture in the face of a changing climate.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
References
Centro del Agua para Zonas Aridas y Semiaridas de America Latina y El Caribe (CAZALAC). (2006). “Aplicación de metodologías para determinar la eficiencia de uso del agua estudio de caso en la región de Coquimbo.” Elaborado por CAZALAC; con la asesoría de RODHOS Asesorías y Proyectos Ltda; Gobierno Regional—Región de Coquimbo.
Christensen, J. H. et al. (2007). “Regional climate projections.” Climate change 2007: The physical science basis, Cambridge University Press, New York.
Falvey, M., and Garreaud, R. D. (2009). “Regional cooling in a warming world: Recent temperature trends in the southeast Pacific and along the west coast of subtropical South America (1979–2006).” J. Geophys. Res. D: Atmos., 114, D04102.
Favier, V., Falvey, M., Rabatel, A., Praderio, E., and López, D. (2009). “Interpreting discrepancies between discharge and precipitation in high-altitude area of Chile’s Norte Chico region (26–32°S).” Water Resour. Res., 45, W02424.
Fuenzalida, H., Aceituno, P., Falvey, M., Garreaud, R., Rojas, M., and Sanchez, R. (2007). “Study on climate variability for Chile during the 21st century.” Technical report prepared for the National Environmental Committee (in Spanish) 〈http://www.dgf.uchile.cl/PRECIS〉 (Jan. 2011).
Gleick, P. H. (1987). “Regional hydrologic consequences of increases in atmospheric and other trace gases.” Clim. Change, 10(2), 137–161.
Held, I. M., and Soden, B. J. (2006). “Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming.” J. Clim., 19(21), 5686–5699.
Jeton, A. E., Dettinger, M. D., and Smith, J. L. (1996). “Potential effects of climate change on streamflow: Eastern and western slopes of the Sierra Nevada, California and Nevada.”, U.S. Geological Survey, Washington, DC.
Miller, N. L., Bashford, K. E., and Strem, E. (2003). “Potential impacts of climate change on California hydrology.” J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 39(4), 771–784.
Montecinos, A., and Aceituno, P. (2003). “Seasonality of the ENSO-related rainfall variability in central Chile and associated circulation anomalies.” J. Clim., 16(2), 281–296.
Nakicenovic, N., and Swart, R., eds. (2000). Special report on emissions scenarios, Cambridge University Press, New York.
Purkey, D. et al. (2008). “Robust analysis of future climate change impacts on water for agriculture and other sectors: A case study in the Sacramento Valley.” Clim. Change, 87, 109–122.
Revelle, R. R., and Waggoner, P. E. (1983). “Effects of a carbon dioxide induced climatic change on water supplies in the western United States.” Changing Climate, National Academy of Sciences Press, Washington, DC.
Vicuña, S., and Dracup, J. A. (2007). “The evolution of climate change impact studies on hydrology and water resources in California.” Clim. Change, 82(3–4), 327–350.
Vicuña, S., Garreaud, R., and McPhee, J. (2011). “Climate change impacts on the hydrology of a snowmelt driven basin in semiarid Chile.” Clim. Change, 105(3), 469–488.
Yates, D., Sieber, J., Purkey, D., and Huber-Lee, A. (2005a). “WEAP21: A demand-, priority-, and preference-driven water planning model: Part 1, model characteristics.” Water Int., 30(4), 487–500.
Yates, D., Sieber, J., Purkey, D., Huber-Lee, A., and Galbraith, H. (2005b). “WEAP21: A demand-, priority-, and preference-driven water planning model: Part 2, Aiding freshwater ecosystem service evaluation.” Water Int., 30(4), 501–512.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Copyright
© 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jan 15, 2011
Accepted: Oct 6, 2011
Published online: Oct 8, 2011
Published in print: Sep 1, 2012
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.