Impacts of Climate Change on Irrigated Agriculture in the Maipo Basin, Chile: Reliability of Water Rights and Changes in the Demand for Irrigation
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 138, Issue 5
Abstract
Agricultural regions located in snowmelt-dominated Mediterranean climate basins have been identified as being highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The Maipo basin in central Chile is one such region. Projections of future climate conditions suggest major challenges for this basin. Precipitation levels are projected to decrease by the end of the century, and temperature levels in the mountains are expected to increase by around 3–4°C. Such changes would affect both river discharge and irrigation water demand. This paper illustrates potential climate change impacts on the hydroclimatological regime of the Maipo basin, focusing on irrigated agriculture and its demands on water use rights. The impact assessment was carried out by combining a multisite stochastic weather generator with a disaggregation technique for historical monthly flows of the Maipo river at El Manzano. Demand for irrigation was simulated with a daily water budget model. Data showed that water demands from irrigated agriculture tend to increase as a consequence of the simulated changes in temperature and precipitation. The magnitudes of these changes depend on crop types and their prevalence in the region. It was concluded that the reliability of water allocations under the current water rights system may be strongly negatively affected. In particular, projected hydrological impacts for the climate change scenario considered indicate that the 15th percentile currently used as the basis for water rights may become the 40th or 50th percentile in the future, suggesting that present water allocations will become overcommitted.
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Acknowledgments
This work was carried out with the aid of a grant from the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI) SGP-HD #003, which is supported by the US National Science Foundation (Grant GEO-0642841), and with the aid of Fondo Nacionald de Desarrollo Científico y Tecnológico (FONDECYT) through grant 1090393.
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Published In
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 138 • Issue 5 • September 2012
Pages: 421 - 430
Copyright
© 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jul 30, 2010
Accepted: Nov 30, 2011
Published online: Aug 15, 2012
Published in print: Sep 1, 2012
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