Modified Traffic Analysis Zones Approach for the Estimation of Passenger Flow Distribution in Urban Areas

This research captures the complex interaction between land use and transportation in an urban context. Even though several land use–transport interaction models at both micro and macro levels are available, there is a necessity to address the intermediate-level model with acceptable accuracy and without intensive data requirement. Further, consideration of road networks and land use in the traffic analysis zone demarcation is a significant requirement to enhance accuracy in estimating passenger flow distribution. This research provides a methodology to identify modified traffic analysis zones (MTAZs) based on traffic flow distribution and to redistribute macrolevel trip origins and destinations into MTAZs considering the road network and land-use character of the area. The core objective of the research is to develop a methodology to demonstrate the relationship between trip production/attraction and land use, to propose a method to redistribute macrolevel origin-destination data into MTAZs based on the identified relationship and to propose a method to assign estimated traffic flows to the road links. The methodology intends to guide the land use and transportation decision making. The methodology is developed based on both spatial and statistical analysis utilizing software and tools, such as ArcMAP, SPSS, and MS Excel. A case study covering the Colombo Municipal Council area, which is located within Colombo District, Western Province, Sri Lanka, is presented to demonstrate the application of the proposed methodology. According to the validation results, the proposed methodology has increased the accuracy of passenger flow estimation compared with the administrative zone-based conventional passenger flow estimation methodologies.