City Size Effect on Migration and Poverty: Study of Million-Plus Cities in India
Publication: Journal of Urban Planning and Development
Volume 147, Issue 3
Abstract
City size plays an important role in the context of growing urbanization in developing countries, such as India. In the backdrop of this fact certain questions are pertinent: whether economic activities are concentrated in a few large cities; which economic factors determine the size of large cities; whether it is possible to trace different groups among the large cities, and whether the relationship pertaining to city size, migration, and poverty is discernible are some of the research issues which are analyzed in this paper by considering 47 million-plus cities in India. The estimated Pareto distribution suggests that within the group of large million-plus cities, production is not so diversified, though the extreme form of concentration such as primacy or rank size rule does not hold either. In fact, three broad groups are evident, as brought out by the results of the cluster analysis. Both OLS and Tobit regression results indicate that the wage rate, amount of municipal solid waste generation, and the number of salaried employed persons are positively associated with city population while the number of registered motor vehicles has a negative effect on it. However, the infrastructure index calculated through factor analysis does not show any significant effect on the city size. Based on the results of factor analysis, increased migration and reduced poverty are seen to be associated with city size. Finally, we bring out the important policy suggestions for sustainable urban development.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Data Availability Statement
Some or all data, models, or code that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Acknowledgments
We are grateful to two anonymous referees and the editor of this journal for their detailed and constructive comments. We are also thankful to Dr. Komali Yenneti for helping us to produce India’s map to show the location of cities used for the analysis. However, the usual disclaimer applies.
References
Abhishek, N., M. Jenamani, and B. Mahanty. 2017. “Urban growth in Indian cities: Are the driving forces really changing?” Habitat Int. 69: 48–57. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2017.08.002.
Ahuja, U. R., D. Tyagi, S. Chauhan, and K. R. Chaudhary. 2011. “Impact of MGNREGA on rural employment and migration: A study in agriculturally-backward and agriculturally-advanced districts of Haryana.” Agric. Econ. Res. Rev. 24 (Conferenc): 495–502.
Auerbach, F. 1913. “Das gesetz der bevölkerungskoncentration.” Petermanns Geograpische Mitteilungen 59 (1): 74–76.
Bhagat, R. B. 2014. Urban migration trends, challenges and opportunities in india. World Migration Report 2015, Background Paper. International Organization for Migration (IOM). Accessed May 17, 2019. https://www.iom.int/sites/default/files/our work/ICP/ MPR/WMR-2015-Background-Paper-RBhagat.pdf.
Bhagat, R. B., and K. Keshri. 2020. “Internal migration in India.” In Internal migration in the countries of Asia, edited by M. Bell, A. Bernard, E. Charles-Edwards, and Y. Zhu, 207–228. Cham, Switzerland: Springer Nature.
Bhalla, S. S., and R. Kaur. 2011. Labour force participation of women in India: Some facts, some queries. Asia Research Centre Working Paper 40. London: London School of Economics & Political Science.
Bhanumurthy, N. R., and A. Mitra. 2004. “Declining poverty in India: A decomposition analysis.” Indian J. Labour Econ. 47 (2): 311–321.
Calem, P. S., and G. A. Carlino. 1991. “Urban agglomeration economies in the presence of technical change.” J. Urban Econ. 29 (1): 82–95. https://doi.org/10.1016/0094-1190(91)90028-6.
Calì, M., and C. Menon. 2013. “Does urbanization affect rural poverty? evidence from Indian districts.” World Bank Econ. Rev. 27 (2): 171–201. https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhs019.
Chauvin, J. P., E. Glaeser, Y. Ma, and K. Tobio. 2017. “What is different about urbanization in rich and poor countries? Cities in Brazil, China, India and the United States.” J. Urban Econ. 98: 17–49. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2016.05.003.
Chavan, M., J. Chandiramani, and S. Nayak. 2019. “Assessing the state of physical infrastructure in progressive urbanization strategy: SAP-LAP analysis.” Habitat Int. 89: 102002. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2019.102002.
Chen, M. A., and G. Raveendran. 2012. “Urban employment in India: Recent trends and patterns.” Margin 6 (2): 159–179. https://doi.org/10.1177/097380101200600204.
Choudhari, R. 2020. “COVID 19 pandemic: Mental health challenges of internal migrant workers of India.” Asian J. Psychiatry 54: 102254. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ajp.2020.102254.
Devadoss, S., J. Luckstead, D. Danforth, and S. Akhundjanov. 2016. “The power law distribution for lower tail cities in India.” Physica A 442: 193–196. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2015.09.016.
Echeverri-Carroll, E. L., and S. G. Ayala. 2011. “Urban wages: Does city size matter?” Urban Stud. 48 (2): 253–271. https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098010369393.
FICCI (Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce & Industry). 2011. Urban infrastructure in India. New Delhi, India: FICCI.
Gangopadhyay, S., P. Lanjouw, T. Vishwanath, and N. Yoshida. 2010. “Identifying pockets of poverty: Insights from poverty mapping experiments in Andhra Pradesh, Orissa and West Bengal.” Indian J. Hum. Dev. 4 (1): 5–28. https://doi.org/10.1177/0973703020100101.
Government of India. 2009. India: Urban poverty report 2009. New Delhi: Ministry of Housing and Urban Poverty Alleviation and Oxford University Press.
Government of India. 2011. High powered expert committee report on urban infrastructure and services. Accessed June 12, 2016. www.niua.org/projects/hpec/finalreport-hpec.pdf.
Haque, I., and P. P. Patel. 2017. “Growth of metro cities in India: Trends, patterns and determinants.” Urban Res. Pract. 11 (4): 1–40.
Harris, J. R., and M. P. Todaro. 1970. “Migration, unemployment and development: A Two-sector analysis.” Am. Econ. Rev. 60 (1): 126–142.
Haynes, R. M. 1973. “Crime rates and city size in America.” Area 5 (3): 162–165.
IDFC (Infrastructure Development Finance Company). 2011. India infrastructure report 2011. Water: Policy and performance for sustainable development. New Delhi, India: Oxford University Press. Accessed November 19, 2013. http://www.idfc.com/pdf/report/IIR-2011.pdf.
IHD (Institute for Human Development). 2014. India labour and employment report 2014. New Delhi: Workers in the era of globalization, Academic Foundation & Institute for Human Development.
IIHS (Indian Institute for Human Settlements). 2012. Urban India 2011: Evidence. Bangalore, India: IIHS. Accessed June 5, 2013. iihs.co.in/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/IUC-Book.pdf.
Imbert, C., and J. Papp. 2020. “Costs and benefits of rural-urban migration: Evidence from India.” J. Dev. Econ. 146: 102473. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2020.102473.
Jamadar, D., and K. P. Joshi. 2019. “Statistical analysis of urbanization and an application towards a Pareto model.” Int. J. Adv. Commun. Med. 2 (3): 33–36. https://doi.org/10.33545/comed.2019.v2.i3a.81.
Jayanthakumaran, K., R. Verma, G. Wan, and E. Wilson, eds. 2019. Internal migration, urbanization and poverty in Asia: Dynamics and interrelationships. Berlin: Springer.
Khan, S. 2014. The other JNNURM: What does it mean for small towns in India? CPR Urban Working Paper 4. New Delhi, India: Centre for Policy Research. Accessed March 20, 2021. https://cprindia.org/sites/default/files/working_papers/The%20Other%20JNNURM.pdf.
Krugman, P. 1991. “Increasing returns and economic geography.” J. Polit. Econ. 99 (3): 483–499. https://doi.org/10.1086/261763.
Krugman, P. 1999. “The role of geography in development.” Int. Reg. Sci. Rev. 22 (2): 142–161. https://doi.org/10.1177/016001799761012307.
Lewis, W. A. 1954. “Economic development with unlimited supplies of labour.” Manchester Sch. 22 (2): 139–191. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9957.1954.tb00021.x.
Luckstead, J., S. Devadoss, and D. Danforth. 2017. “The size distributions of all Indian cities.” Physica A 474: 237–249. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2017.01.065.
Maiti, M. 2015. “Understanding the employment challenges in India.” Int. Res. J. Social Sci. 4 (1): 1–8. https://doi.org/10.5958/2321-5771.2015.00001.0.
Maparu, S., and T. N. Mazumder. 2017. “Transport infrastructure, economic development and urbanization in India (1990–2011): Is there any causal relationship?” Transp. Res. Part A 100: 319–336.
Mathur, O. P. 2005. “Impact of globalization on cities and city-related policies in India.” In Globalization and urban development, edited by H. W. Richardson and C-HC Bae, 43–58. Berlin: Springer.
Mathur, O. P. 2019. “City-size distributions in a quasi-open economy: The India evidence.” In Cities of dragons and elephants: Urbanization and urban development in China and India, edited by G. Wan, and M. Lu, 103–129. New York: Oxford University Press.
Mehrotra, S., J. Parida, S. Sinha, and A. Gandhi. 2014. “Explaining employment trends in the Indian economy: 1993–94 to 2011–12.” Econ. Polit. Weekly 49 (32): 49–57.
Mera, K. 1973. “II. regional production functions and social overhead capital: An analysis of the japanese case.” Reg. Urban Econ. 3 (2): 157–185. https://doi.org/10.1016/0034-3331(73)90024-9.
Mitra, A. 2019. “Rural to urban migration and urban labour market: The case of India.” In Cities of dragons and elephants: Urbanization and urban development in China and India, edited by G. Wan and M. Lu, 175–218. New York: Oxford University Press.
Mitra, A. 2020. “Informal sector in India: Migration and poverty implications.” Reg. Econ. Dev. Res. 1 (1): 1–10. https://doi.org/10.37256/redr.112020153.
Mitra, A., and M. Murayama. 2009. “Rural to urban migration: A district-level analysis for India.” Int. J. Migr. Health Social Care 5 (2): 35–52. https://doi.org/10.1108/17479894200900011.
Mitra, A., and J. Singh. 2019. “Rising unemployment in India: A statewise analysis from 1993–94 to 2017–18.” Econ. Polit. Weekly 54 (50): 12–16.
Moomaw, R. L. 1983. “Is population scale a worthless surrogate for business agglomeration economies?” Reg. Sci. Urban Econ. 13 (4): 525–545. https://doi.org/10.1016/0166-0462(83)90033-9.
Nair, V. D. 2012. Infrastructure development in India. Hyderabad, India: Dr. Marri Channa Reddy Human Resource Development Institute.
Narayana, M. R. 2009. “Size distribution of metropolitan areas: Evidence and implications for India.” J. Appl. Econ. Res. 3 (3): 243–264.
O’Clery, N., and E. Lora. 2016. City size, distance and formal employment. CID Research Fellow and Graduate Student Working Paper No. 77. Cambridge, MA: Center for International Development at Harvard Univ.
Pradhan, R. 2007. “Does infrastructure play role in urbanization: Evidence from India.” Indian J. Econ. Bus. 6 (1): 81–92.
Ramaswamy, K. V., and T. Agrawal. 2012. “Services-led growth, employment, skill, and job quality: A study of manufacturing and service sectors in urban India.” In India development report 2012–13, edited by M. Dev, 116–131. New Delhi, India: Oxford University Press.
Ray, M., and A. Dutta. 2019. “Economic reform, uneven regional development and internal migration in India.” Migr. Dev. 8 (2): 281–300. https://doi.org/10.1080/21632324.2019.1570622.
Sarkar, S., and B. S. Mehta. 2019. “Infrastructure and urbanization in India: Issues and challenges.” In Cities of dragons and elephants: Urbanization and urban development in China and India, edited by G. Wan and M. Lu, 440–472. New York: Oxford University Press.
Schaffar, A., and M. Dimou. 2012. “Rank-size city dynamics in China and India, 1981–2004.” Reg. Stud. 46 (6): 707–721. https://doi.org/10.1080/00343404.2010.521146.
Singh, J., D. Sharma, and G. S. Batra. 2020. “Does credit utilization pattern promote poverty alleviation? An evidence from India.” Global Business Review, 1–24.
Sridhar, K. S. 2010. “Determinants of city growth and output in India.” Rev. Urban Reg. Dev. Stud. 22 (1): 22–38. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-940X.2010.00167.x.
Sridhar, K. S., V. Reddy, and P. Srinath. 2013. “Is it push or pull? Recent evidence from migration into Bangalore, India.” Int. Migr. Integr. 14: 287–306.
Subbarayan, A., and G. Kumar. 2016. “Overall size distribution of cities and towns in India: 2011 census.” J. Appl. Sci. 16: 230–235. https://doi.org/10.3923/jas.2016.230.235.
Tiebout, C. M. 1956. “A pure theory of local expenditures.” J. Polit. Econ. 64 (5): 416–424. https://doi.org/10.1086/257839.
Todaro, M. P. 1969. “A model of labor migration and urban unemployment in less developed countries.” Am. Econ. Rev. 59 (1): 138–148.
Toutain, O., and S. Gopiprasad. 2006. India infrastructure report 2006. New Delhi, India: Oxford University Press. Accessed November 10, 2012. http://www.idfc.com/pdf/report/IIR-2006.pdf.
Tripathi, S. 2013a. “Do large agglomerations lead to economic growth? evidence from urban India.” Rev. Urban Reg. Dev. Stud. 25 (3): 176–200. https://doi.org/10.1111/rurd.12014.
Tripathi, S. 2013b. “Does higher economic growth reduce poverty and increase inequality? Evidence from urban India.” Indian J. Hum. Dev. 7 (1): 109–137. https://doi.org/10.1177/0973703020130105.
Tripathi, S. 2014. “Estimating urban agglomeration economies for India: A new economic geography perspective.” Theor. Empirical Res. Urban Manage. 9 (2): 19–49.
Tripathi, S. 2018. “Does a higher level of infrastructure increase population in large agglomerations? Evidence from India.” Rev. Urban Reg. Dev. Stud. 30 (2): 145–168. https://doi.org/10.1111/rurd.12082.
Tripathi, S. forthcoming. “Why is the rural to urban migration rate in India so low? An empirical analysis.” Rev. of Reg. Stud.
World Bank. 2010. “Perspectives on poverty in India: Stylized facts from survey data.” India poverty assessment, poverty reduction and economic management network. Washington, DC: World Bank.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Urban Planning and Development
Volume 147 • Issue 3 • September 2021
Copyright
© 2021 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Aug 18, 2020
Accepted: Dec 22, 2020
Published online: Apr 19, 2021
Published in print: Sep 1, 2021
Discussion open until: Sep 19, 2021
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.
Cited by
- Dibyendu Biswas, Poverty gradient across size-class towns in urban India, GeoJournal, 10.1007/s10708-022-10672-x, 88, 1, (1017-1033), (2022).