Multiplayer Speculation, Interest Coalition, and Housing Prices Fluctuations
Publication: Journal of Urban Planning and Development
Volume 146, Issue 4
Abstract
Real estate gives a huge impetus to the development of the national economy and surging housing prices can easily trigger social problems and financial risks. Considering housing price fluctuations, this study constructs a stochastic evolutionary game model from the perspective of the implicit interest coalitions among local governments, real estate enterprises, and speculators. The stable condition of the model is that local government, local governments decide to regulate, real estate enterprises select not to hype housing prices, and speculators choose not to buy houses. Through numerical simulation, this study finds that the supervision of central government and the regulatory strength of local governments can affect the choices of players differently, which gives a new explanation for the retaliatory rise of housing prices when local governments conduct regulation measures frequently. In addition, gray income, the punishment of hype, and the cost of speculation can make the strategic moves of players different in severity and direction under a stochastic environment. Based on these findings, countermeasures and suggestions are proposed in this study.
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Data Availability Statement
The original data of variables for simulation are given in Table 3. All models used during this study appear in the published article. Simulation code is available from the corresponding author by reasonable request.
Acknowledgments
The authors' special thanks go to all survey participants and reviewers of the paper, and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC-71272048).
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Information & Authors
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Published In
Journal of Urban Planning and Development
Volume 146 • Issue 4 • December 2020
Copyright
© 2020 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Nov 26, 2019
Accepted: Jun 4, 2020
Published online: Aug 18, 2020
Published in print: Dec 1, 2020
Discussion open until: Jan 18, 2021
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