Solutions for New Town Development Predicaments from a Comparison Analysis of Spatial Evolution
Publication: Journal of Urban Planning and Development
Volume 145, Issue 4
Abstract
Successful development of new towns is vital for a healthy, highly efficient, sustainable, and symbiotic metropolis. By quantitatively comparing the spatial characteristics and evolution processes between mother city and new towns using a multinomial logit (MNL)–based cellular automata (CA) land-use change model, this study aims to find solutions for new town development predicaments, e.g., failure to attract businesses and lack of urban living and prosperity. Wuhan metropolis, China, constituted by the existing mother city and six new towns, is used for the case study. At a cell level (), land-use data from the Wuhan metropolis in years 2000 and 2010 are used for model calibration. For both the mother city and the southeastern new town, the calibrated parameters of MNL models are analyzed to explore the roles of various spatial characteristics on land-use development. Furthermore, analysis of the model shows that it can capture the real regulations of spatial growth for both mother city and new towns. Scenario analysis concludes that the interactions between mother city and new towns are the critical factor for a successful spatial growth simulation. To successfully create similarly vital and lively urban life as that in the mother city, new towns should focus comprehensive development on diverse neighborhoods and improve the attractiveness of the local center. From the perspective of characteristics of spatial evolution, this study reveals the reasons why some new towns fail to create a vital and lively urban life, which is helpful for better development of new towns.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Acknowledgments
This research was supported by the National Natural Social Science Foundation of China (Grant Number: 18BGL270).
References
Al-Ahmadi, K., L. See, A. Heppenstall, and J. Hogg. 2009. “Calibration of a fuzzy cellular automata model of urban dynamics in Saudi Arabia.” Ecol. Complexity 6 (2): 80–101. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecocom.2008.09.004.
Carletta, J. 1996. “Assessing agreement on classification tasks: The kappa statistic.” Comput. Ling. 22 (2): 249–254.
Cohen, J. 1960. “A coefficient of agreement for nominal scales.” Educ. Psychol. Meas. 20 (1): 37–46.
Firman, T. 2004. “New town development in Jakarta metropolitan region: A perspective of spatial segregation.” Habitat Int. 28 (3): 349–368. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0197-3975(03)00037-7.
Forsyth, A. 2002. “Planning lessons from Three U.S. New Towns of the 1960s and 1970s: Irvine, Columbia, and The Woodlands.” J. Am. Plann. Assoc. 68 (4): 387–415.
Halmy, M. W. A., P. E. Gessler, J. A. Hicke, and B. B. Salem. 2015. “Land use/land cover change detection and prediction in the north-western coastal desert of Egypt using Markov-CA.” Appl. Geogr. 63 (Sep): 101–112. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2015.06.015.
Hasbani, J. G. 2008. “Semi-automated calibration of a cellular automata model to simulate land-use changes in the Calgary region.” Master’s thesis, Dept. of Geomatics Engineering, Univ. of Calgary.
Heppenstall, A., L. See, K. Al-Ahmadi, and B. Kim. 2011. “CA city: Simulating urban growth through the application of cellular automata.” In Cellular automata—Simplicity behind complexity, edited by A. Salcido. Rijeka, Croatia: InTech.
Hillier, B. 2006. “The golden age for cities? How we design cities is how we understand them.” Urban Des. 100: 16–19.
Lee, C. M., and K. H. Ahn. 2005. “Five new towns in the Seoul metropolitan area and their attractions in non-working trips: Implications on self-containment of new towns.” Habitat Int. 29 (4): 647–666. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2004.05.004.
Li, X., and A. G. O. Yeh. 2002. “Neural-network-based cellular automata for simulating multiple land use changes using GIS.” Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci. 16 (4): 323–343. https://doi.org/10.1080/13658810210137004.
Ménard, A., and D. J. Marceau. 2005. “Exploration of spatial scale sensitivity in geographic cellular automata.” Environ. Plann. B: Plann. Des. 32 (5): 693–714. https://doi.org/10.1068/b31163.
Meyer, H. 2007. “Spatial composition of new towns from historical perspective.” In New town research, edited by D. Frieling. Almere, Netherlands: PlantijnCasparie.
Miller, E. J., D. S. Kriger, and J. D. Hunt. 1999. Integrated urban models for simulation of transit and land use policies: Guidelines for implementation and use. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.
Peiser, R. B. 1999. “Is it possible to build financially successful new towns? The Milton Keynes experience.” Urban Stud. 36 (10): 1679–1703. https://doi.org/10.1080/0042098992773.
Pijanowski, B. C., D. G. Brown, B. A. Shellito, and G. A. Manik. 2002. “Using neural networks and GIS to forecast land use changes: A land transformation model.” Comput. Environ. Urban Syst. 26 (6): 553–575. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0198-9715(01)00015-1.
Selezneva, E. 2011. Urban vitality: Exploring the centrality conditions. Master’s thesis, Dept. of Urbanism, Delft Univ. of Technology.
Shapiro, A. 2003. “Monte Carlo sampling methods.” In Vol 10 of Handbooks in operations research and management science, 353–425. Amsterdam, Netherlands: Elsevier.
USGS. 2017. “Digital elevation model download.” Accessed January 26, 2017. https://www.usgs.gov/.
Wei, H., and A. Mogharabi. 2013. “Key issues in integrating new town development into urban transportation planning.” Procedia: Soc. Behav. Sci. 96 (Nov): 2846–2857. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2013.08.317.
White, R., and G. Engelen. 1993. “Cellular automata and fractal urban form: A cellular modelling approach to the evolution of urban land-use patterns.” Environ. Plann. A 25 (8): 1175. https://doi.org/10.1068/a251175.
WLRPB (Wuhan Land Resources and Planning Bureau). 2017. “Land use data download.” Accessed January 26, 2017. http://gtghj.wuhan.gov.cn/.
Wu, F. 2002. “Calibration of stochastic cellular automata: The application to rural-urban land conversions.” Int. J. Geog. Inf. Sci. 16 (8): 795–818. https://doi.org/10.1080/13658810210157769.
Yang, Q., X. Li, and X. Shi. 2008. “Cellular automata for simulating land use changes based on support vector machines.” Comput. Geosci. 34 (6): 592–602. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cageo.2007.08.003.
Ye, Y., and A. V. Nes. 2013. “Measuring urban maturation processes in Dutch and Chinese new towns: Combining street network configuration with building density and degree of land use diversification through GIS.” J. Space Syntax 4 (1): 18–37.
Ye, Y., and A. V. Nes. 2014. “The spatial flaws of new towns: Morphological comparison between a Chinese new and old town through the application of space syntax, space matrix and mixed use index.” J. Faculty Archit. 11 (2): 191–208.
Zamani, B., and M. Arefi. 2013. “Iranian new towns and their urban management issues: A critical review of influential actors and factors.” Cities 30 (Feb): 105–112. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2012.01.003.
Zhang, M., and J. D. Landis. 1995. An empirical model of land use change in the San Francisco Bay Area: 1985–1990. Berkeley, CA: Univ. of California, Berkeley.
Zhao, L., and Z. R. Peng. 2012. “LandSys: An agent-based cellular automata model of land use change developed for transportation analysis.” J. Transp. Geogr. 25 (Nov): 35–49. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2012.07.006.
Zhao, L., and Z. R. Peng. 2015. “LandSys II: Agent-based land use–forecast model with artificial neural networks and multi agent model.” J. Urban Plann. Dev. 141 (4): 04014045. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)UP.1943-5444.0000255.
Zheng, H. W., G. Q. Shen, H. Wang, and J. Hong. 2015. “Simulating land use change in urban renewal areas: A case study in Hong Kong.” Habitat Int. 46 (Apr): 23–34. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2014.10.008.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Copyright
©2019 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jul 17, 2017
Accepted: Mar 7, 2019
Published online: Aug 29, 2019
Published in print: Dec 1, 2019
Discussion open until: Jan 29, 2020
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.