Simple Method for Shallow Landslide Prediction Based on Wide-Area Terrain Analysis Incorporated with Surface and Subsurface Flows
Publication: Natural Hazards Review
Volume 23, Issue 4
Abstract
During intense rainfall, shallow landslides often occur on natural slopes due to the rising groundwater level. This study proposed a simple model for rainfall-induced shallow landslide prediction in broad areas based on an infinite homogeneous slope assumption and a simplified hydrological process. For this purpose, a numerical model, TAG_FLOW, was developed in Fortran 90. Its structure was divided into four modules: (1) a surface infiltration module based on the Green-Ampt model, (2) a groundwater-level simulation based on a previously developed simple one-dimensional vertical prediction method combined with horizontal groundwater distribution, (3) a surface water control module based on two-dimensional shallow water equations and a depression removal process, and (4) slope stability estimated using the assumption of an infinite homogeneous slope. The simplified hydrological process for the surface and subsurface flows was validated using a tilted V-catchment model and tested with the Abdul and Gillham system. For the performance evaluation of TAG_FLOW, we applied the model to analyze rainfall-induced landslides for an area in North Kyushu during the historically large torrential rainfall event in July 2017. The landslide prediction capacity of the TAG_FLOW model was evaluated by the TRIGRS model and the actual landslide map. The results confirmed that both groundwater and surface water contributed to the occurrence of landslides in the study area. The prediction performance of the TAG_FLOW model was slightly better than that of the TRIGRS model, but both models overpredicted landslides in the study area.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Data Availability Statement
All data, models, and code generated or used during the study appear in the published article.
Acknowledgments
This research was supported by a Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology scholarship and a Japan Science and Technology Agency Strategic International Collaborative Research Program grant (e-ASIA Joint Research Program), titled “Establishment of a Landslide Monitoring and Prediction System” (Grant JPMJSC18E3). The authors are grateful to the Kyushu Regional Development Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism of Japan for providing the DEM data, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism of Japan for the XRAIN data, the Geospatial Information Authority of Japan for the landslide map, and the Geological Survey of Japan for the geological map data. The authors also appreciate the support of Dr. Takatsugu Ozaki, Ms. Akino Watanate, and other members of the e-ASIA Joint Research Program.
References
Abdul, A. S., and R. W. Gillham. 1984. “Laboratory studies of the effects of the capillary fringe on streamflow generation.” Water Resour. Res. 20 (6): 691–698. https://doi.org/10.1029/WR020i006p00691.
Al-Bittar, T., A. H. Soubra, and J. Thajeel. 2018. “Kriging-based reliability analysis of strip footings resting on spatially varying soils.” J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng. 144 (10): 04018071. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)GT.1943-5606.0001958.
An, H., T. V. Tran, G. H. Lee, Y. Kim, M. Kim, S. Noh, and J. Noh. 2016. “Development of time-variant landslide-prediction software considering three-dimensional subsurface unsaturated flow.” Environ. Modell. Software 85 (12): 172–183. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.08.009.
Baum, R. L., W. Z. Savage, and J. W. Godt. 2002. TRIGRS-A Fortran program for transient rainfall infiltration and grid-based regional slope-stability analysis. Denver: Denver Publishing Service Center.
Baum, R. L., W. Z. Savage, and J. W. Godt. 2008. TRIGRS-A Fortran program for transient rainfall infiltration and grid-based regional slope stability analysis, version 2.0. Denver: Denver Publishing Service Center.
Bellugia, D. G., D. G. Milledgeb, K. M. Cuffeya, W. E. Dietricha, and L. G. Larsen. 2021. “Controls on the size distributions of shallow landslides.” Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 118 (9): 1–11. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2021855118.
Borrelli, L., M. Ciurleo, and G. Gullà. 2018. “Shallow landslide susceptibility assessment in granitic rocks using GIS-based statistical methods: The contribution of the weathering grade map.” Landslides 15 (7): 1127–1142. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-018-0947-7.
Cai, F., and K. Ugai. 2004. “Numerical analysis of rainfall effects on slope stability.” Int. J. Geomech. 4 (2): 69–78. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1532-3641(2004)4:2(69).
Chen, L., and M. H. Young. 2006. “Green-Ampt infiltration model for sloping surface.” Water Resour. Res. 42 (8): 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005WR004468.
Chu, S. T. 1978. “Infiltration during an unsteady rain.” Water Resour. Res. 14 (3): 461–466. https://doi.org/10.1029/WR014i003p00461.
Chu, X. F., and M. A. Marino. 2005. “Determination of ponding condition and infiltration into layered soils under unsteady rainfall.” J. Hydrol. 313 (3–4): 195–207. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.03.002.
Cuomo, S., and D. Sala. 2013. “Rainfall-induced infiltration, runoff and failure in steep unsaturated shallow soil deposits.” Eng. Geol. 162 (5): 118–127. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2013.05.010.
Dahal, R. K., S. Hasegawa, A. Nonomura, M. Yamanaka, T. Masuda, and K. Nishino. 2009. “Failure characteristics of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in granitic terrains of Shikoku Island of Japan.” Environ. Geol. 56 (Jan): 1295–1310. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00254-008-1228-x.
Deng, P., and J. Zhu. 2016. “Analysis of effective Green–Ampt hydraulic parameters for vertically layered soils.” J. Hydrol. 538 (Jan): 705–712. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.04.059.
DHI. 2007. MIKE SHE, an integrated hydrological modeling system: User guide.
Dietrich, W. E., and D. R. Montgomery. 1998. SHALSTAB: A digital terrain model for mapping shallow landslide potential. Technical Rep. Corvallis, OR: National Council of the Paper Industry for Air and Stream Improvement.
Di Giammarco, P., E. Todini, and P. Lamberti. 1996. “A conservative finite element approach to overland flow: The control volume finite element formulation.” J. Hydrol. 175 (1–4): 267–291. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(96)80014-X.
Dolojan, N. L. J., S. Moriguchi, M. Hashimoto, and K. Terada. 2021. “Correction to: Mapping method of rainfall-induced landslide hazards by infiltration and slope stability analysis.” Landslides 18 (20): 2039–2057. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-021-01642-4.
DPRI (Disaster Prevention Research Institute) Kyoto University. 2018. “Report of the 2017 Northern Kyushu heavy rain disaster.” [In Japanese.] Accessed June 7, 2021. https://www.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp/news_en/9542/.
Esteves, M., X. Faucher, S. Galle, and M. Vauclin. 2000. “Overland flow and infiltration modelling for small plots during unsteady rain: Numerical results versus observed values.” J. Hydrol. 228 (3): 265–282. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(00)00155-4.
Fernández-Pato, J., D. Caviedes-Voullième, and P. Garcia-Navarro. 2016. “Rainfall/runoff simulation with 2D full shallow water equations: Sensitivity analysis and calibration of infiltration parameters.” J. Hydrol. 536 (Mar): 496–513. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.03.021.
Fernández-Pato, J., J. L. Gracia, and P. García-Navarro. 2018. “A fractional-order infiltration model to improve the simulation of rainfall/runoff in combination with a 2D shallow water model.” J. Hydroinf. 20 (4): 898–916. https://doi.org/10.2166/hydro.2018.145.
Geological Survey of Japan. 2019. “Seamless digital geological map of Japan (1:200,000).” Accessed November 22, 2020. https://gbank.gsj.jp/seamless/index_en.html.
Geospatial Information Authority of Japan. 2017. “Damage situation interpretation map due to heavy rain in northern Kyushu in July 2017.” Accessed July 14, 2019. https://www.gsi.go.jp/BOUSAI/H29hukuoka_ooita-heavyrain.html.
Green, W. H., and G. Ampt. 1911. “Studies on soil physics.” J. Agric. Sci. 4 (1): 1–24. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0021859600001441.
Grimaldi, S., A. Petroselli, and N. Romano. 2012. “Green-Ampt curve number mixed procedure as an empirical tool for rainfall–runoff modeling in small and ungauged basins.” Hydrol. Process. 27 (8): 1253–1264. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9303.
Hazarika, H., S. Yamamoto, T. Ishizawa, T. Danjo, Y. Kochi, T. Fujishiro, and S. Ishibashi. 2020. “The 2017 July Northern Kyushu torrential rainfall disaster—Geotechnical and geological perspectives.” In Geotechnics for natural disaster mitigation and management. Berlin: Springer.
Horton, R. E. 1933. “The role of infiltration in the hydrological cycle the role of infiltration in the hydrologic cycle.” Eos Trans. AGU 14 (Sep): 446–460. https://doi.org/10.1029/TR014i001p00446.
Huang, J., N. P. Ju, Y. J. Liao, and D. D. Liu. 2015. “Determination of rainfall thresholds for shallow landslides by a probabilistic and empirical method.” Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 15 (Jan): 2715–2723. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2715-2015.
Huang, J. C., and S. J. Kao. 2006. “Optimal estimator for assessing landslide model performance.” Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 10 (6): 957–965. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-10-957-2006.
Iverson, R. M. 2000. “Landslide triggering by rain infiltration.” Water Resour. Res. 36 (Jan): 1897–1910. https://doi.org/10.1029/2000WR900090.
Japanese Association of Groundwater Hydrology. 2010. Simulation of groundwater flow and solute transport. Beijing: Japanese Association of Groundwater Hydrology.
Kim, M. S., Y. Onda, J. K. Kim, and S. W. Kim. 2015. “Effect of topography and soil parameterisation representing soil thicknesses on shallow landslide modeling.” Quat. Int. 384 (Mar): 91–106. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2015.03.057.
Kim, M. S., Y. Onda, T. Uchida, and J. K. Kim. 2016. “Effects of soil depth and subsurface flow along the subsurface topography on shallow landslide predictions at the site of a small granitic hillslope.” Geomorphology 271 (Jan): 40–54. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2016.07.031.
Kinzelbach, W. 1986. Groundwater modeling: An introduction with sample programs in BASIC. New York: Elsevier.
Lee, S., M. J. Chu, and A. R. Schmidt. 2020. “Effective Green-Ampt parameters for two-layered soils.” J. Hydrol. Eng. 25 (4): 04020004. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001897.
Liu, G., F. G. Tong, and B. Tian. 2019. “A finite element model for simulating surface runoff and unsaturated seepage flow in the shallow subsurface.” Hydrol. Process. 33 (26): 3378–3390. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.13564.
Liu, J., J. Zhang, and J. Feng. 2008. “Green–Ampt model for layered soils with nonuniform initial water content under unsteady infiltration.” Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J. 72 (4): 1041–1047. https://doi.org/10.2136/sssaj2007.0119.
Mein, R. G., and C. L. Larson. 1973. “Modeling infiltration during a steady rain.” Water Resour. Res. 9 (2): 384–394. https://doi.org/10.1029/WR009i002p00384.
Montgomery, D. R., and W. E. Dietrich. 1994. “A physically based model for the topographic control of shallow landsliding.” Water Resour. Res. 30 (4): 1153–1171. https://doi.org/10.1029/93WR02979.
Obregon, C., and H. Mitri. 2019. “Probabilistic approach for open pit bench slope stability analysis—A mine case study.” Int. J. Min. Sci. Technol. 29 (4): 629–640. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijmst.2019.06.017.
Osanai, N., T. Shimizu, K. Kuramoto, S. Kojima, and T. Noro. 2010. “Japanese early-warning for debris flows and slope failures using rainfall indices with radial basis function network.” Landslides 7 (78): 325–338. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-010-0229-5.
Ozaki, T., A. Wakai, A. Watanabe, F. Cai, G. Sato, and T. Kimura. 2021. “A simplified model for the infiltration of rainwater in natural slope consisting of fine sands.” J. Japan Landslide Soc. 58 (2): 57–64. https://doi.org/10.3313/jls.58.57.
Pack, R. T., D. G. Tarboton, and C. N. Goodwin. 1998. Terrain stability mapping with SINMAP, technical description and users guide for version 1.00. Salmon Arm, BC: Terratech Consulting.
Rahardjo, H., T. H. Ong, R. B. Rezaur, and E. C. Leong. 2007. “Factors controlling instability of homogeneous soil slopes under rainfall.” J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng. 133 (12): 1532–1543. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1090-0241(2007)13.
Rahardjo, H., T. H. Ong, R. B. Rezaur, E. C. Leong, and D. G. Fredlund. 2010. “Response parameters for characterization of infiltration.” Environ. Earth Sci. 60 (45): 1369–1380. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-009-0273-4.
Raia, S., M. Alvioli, M. Rossi, R. L. Baum, J. W. Godt, and F. Guzzetti. 2014. “Improving predictive power of physically based rainfall-induced shallow landslide models: A probabilistic approach.” Geosci. Model Dev. 7 (14): 495–514. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-495-2014.
Rawls, W. J., D. L. Brakensiek, and N. Miller. 1983. “Green-ampt infiltration parameters from soils data.” J. Hydraul. Eng. 109 (1): 62–70. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9429(1983)109:1(62).
Richards, L. A. 1931. “Capillary conduction of liquids through porous mediums.” J. Appl. Phys. 1 (5): 318–333. https://doi:10.1063/1.1745010.
Rosso, R., M. C. Rulli, and G. Vannucchi. 2006. “A physically based model for the hydrologic control on shallow landsliding.” Water Resour. Res. 42 (6): 6. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005WR004369.
Saito, H., D. Nakayama, and H. Matsuyama. 2010. “Relationship between the initiation of a shallow landslide and rainfall intensity-duration thresholds in Japan.” Geomorphology 118 (1–2): 167–175. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2009.12.016.
Sato, G., T. Kimura, K. Hirota, T. Ching-Ying, and H. Tagi. 2018. “Distribution of shallow landslides and related mass movement processes induced by the heavy rain in July 2018 on Gogoshima Island, Ehime Prefecture, Japan.” J. Japan Landslide Soc. 56 (3): 129–134. https://doi.org/10.3313/jls.56.129.
Saulnier, G. M., K. Bevenb, and C. Obleda. 1997. “Including spatially variable effective soil depths in TOPMODEL.” J. Hydrol. 202 (1–4): 158–172. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(97)00059-0.
Sayama, T., G. Ozawa, T. Kawakami, S. Nabesaka, and K. Fukami. 2012. “Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation analysis of the 2010 Pakistan flood in the Kabul River basin.” Hydrol. Sci. J. 57 (2): 298–312. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2011.644245.
Sayama, T., Y. Tatebe, Y. Iwami, and S. Tanaka. 2015a. “Hydrologic sensitivity of flood runoff and inundation: 2011 Thailand floods in the Chao Phraya River basin.” Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 15 (Jan): 1617–1630. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1617-2015.
Sayama, T., Y. Tatebe, and S. Tanaka. 2015b. “An emergency response-type rainfall-runoff inundation simulation for 2011 Thailand floods.” J. Flood Risk Manage. 10 (1): 65–78. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12147.
Shuin, Y., I. Otsuka, K. Matsue, K. Aruka, T. Tasaka, and N. Hotta. 2014. “Estimation of shallow landslides caused by heavy rainfall using two conceptual models.” Int. J. Erosion Control Eng. 7 (3): 92–100. https://doi.org/10.13101/ijece.7.92.
Society of Applied Ecological Engineering. 2018. “July 2017 Heavy Rain Survey Team in Northern Kyushu report.” Accessed June 21, 2021. https://www.ecesj.com/contents/guidance/report/2019_kyusyu_Disaster_Report.pdf.
Taylor, D. W. 1948. Fundamentals of soil mechanics. New York: Wiley.
Tesfa, T. K., D. G. Tarboton, and D. G. Chandler. 2009. “Modeling soil depth from topographic and land cover attributes.” Water Resour. Res. 45 (10): 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008WR007474.
Tian, D., and D. Liu. 2011. “A new integrated surface and subsurface flows model and its verification.” Appl. Math. Modell. 35 (7): 3574–3586. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apm.2011.01.035.
Tran, T. V., M. Alvioli, and V. H. Hoang. 2021. “Description of a complex, rainfall-induced landslide within a multi-stage three-dimensional model.” Nat. Hazard. 110 (Jan): 1953–1968. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-05020-0.
Tran, T. V., M. Alvioli, G. H. Lee, and H. An. 2018. “Three-dimensional, time-dependent modeling of rainfall-induced landslides over a digital landscape: A case study.” Landslides 15 (18): 1071–1084. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-017-0931-7.
Tran, T. V., G. H. Lee, H. An, and M. Kim. 2017. “Comparing the performance of TRIGRS and TiVaSS in spatial and temporal prediction of rainfall induced shallow landslides.” Environ. Earth Sci. 76 (315): 1–16. doi:10.1007/s12665-017-6635-4.
Tran, T. V., G. H. Lee, and M. S. Kim. 2016a. “Shallow landslide assessment considering the influence of vegetation cover.” J. Korean Geo-Environ. Soc. 17 (4): 17–31. https://doi.org/10.14481/jkges.2016.17.4.17.
Tran, T. V., G. H. Lee, M. T. Trinh, and H. An. 2016b. “Effect of digital elevation model resolution on shallow landslide modeling using TRIGRS.” Nat. Hazard. Rev. 18 (2): 1–12. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000233.
Uchida, T., K. Tamur, and K. Akiyama. 2011. “The role of grid cell size, flow routing algorithm and spatial variability of soil depth on shallow landslide prediction.” Ital. J. Eng. Geol. Environ. 149–157. https://doi.org/10.4408/IJEGE.2011-03.B-018.
Uchimura, T., I. Towhata, L. Wang, S. Nishie, H. Yamaguchi, I. Seko, and J. Qiao. 2015. “Precaution and early warning of surface failure of slopes using tilt sensors.” Soils Found. 55 (5): 1086–1099. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sandf.2015.09.010.
USDA-SCS. 1972. National engineering handbook, Section 4: Hydrology. Washington, DC: US Department of Agriculture.
Volpe, E., L. Ciabatta, D. Salciarini, S. Camici, E. Cattoni, and L. Brocca. 2021. “The impact of probability density functions assessment on model performance for slope stability analysis.” Geosciences 11 (8): 322. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences11080322.
Wakai, A., K. Hori, A. Watanabe, F. Cai, H. Fukazu, S. Goto, and T. Kimura. 2019. “A simple prediction model for shallow groundwater level rise in natural slopes based on finite element solutions.” J. Japan Landslide Soc. 56 (Jan): 227–239. https://doi.org/10.3313/jls.56.227.
Wang, L., and H. Liu. 2006. “An efficient method for identifying and filling surface depressions in digital elevation models for hydrologic analysis and modeling.” Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci. 20 (2): 193–213. https://doi.org/10.1080/13658810500433453.
Watanabe, A., V. T. Nguyen, and A. Wakai. 2021a. “Assessment of rainfall-induced landslides in Tomioka City, Gunma Prefecture, Japan (Oct 2019) Based on a simple prediction model.” In Understanding and reducing landslide disaster risk. Berlin: Springer.
Watanabe, A., A. Wakai, T. Ozaki, V. T. Nguyen, T. Kimura, G. Sato, and N. Kitamura. 2021b. “The effect of surface layer thickness in a wide-area simulation in different models: Susceptibility mapping of rainfall-induced landslide.” J. Disaster Res. 16 (4): 636–645. https://doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2021.p0636.
Weill, S., E. Mouche, and J. Patin. 2009. “A generalized Richards equation for surface/subsurface flow modeling.” J. Hydrol. 366 (1): 9–20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.12.007.
Wu, T. H., W. P. McKinnell, and D. N. Swanston. 1979. “Strength of tree roots and landslides on Prince of Wales Island, Alaska.” Can. Geotech. J. 16 (1): 19–33. https://doi.org/10.1139/t79-003.
Yang, H., F. Wang, and M. Miyajima. 2015. “Investigation of shallow landslides triggered by heavy rainfall during typhoon Wipha (2013), Izu Oshima Island, Japan.” Geoenviron. Disasters 2 (15): 1–10. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40677-015-0023-8.
Zhu, D., Q. Ren, Y. Xuan, Y. Chen, and I. D. Cluckie. 2013. “An effective depression filling algorithm for DEM-based 2-D surface flow modeling.” Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 17 (Sep): 495–505. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-495-2013.
Zhu, Y. L., T. Ishikawa, and S. S. Subramanian. 2020a. “Simulation of runoff and infiltration using iterative cross-coupled surface and subsurface flows.” Jpn. Geotech. Soc. Spec. Publ. 8 (3): 41–46. https://doi.org/10.3208/jgssp.v08.j13.
Zhu, Y. L., T. Ishikawa, S. S. Subramanian, and B. Luo. 2020b. “Simultaneous analysis of slope instabilities on a small catchment-scale using coupled surface and subsurface flows.” Eng. Geol. 275 (Sep): 105750. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2020.105750.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Natural Hazards Review
Volume 23 • Issue 4 • November 2022
Copyright
© 2022 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Dec 31, 2021
Accepted: May 19, 2022
Published online: Aug 12, 2022
Published in print: Nov 1, 2022
Discussion open until: Jan 12, 2023
ASCE Technical Topics:
- Climates
- Engineering fundamentals
- Environmental engineering
- Flow (fluid dynamics)
- Fluid dynamics
- Fluid mechanics
- Geohazards
- Geomechanics
- Geotechnical engineering
- Groundwater
- Hydrologic engineering
- Hydrologic models
- Landslides
- Meteorology
- Models (by type)
- Overland flow
- Precipitation
- Rainfall
- Slopes
- Subsurface flow
- Two-dimensional models
- Water (by type)
- Water and water resources
- Water management
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.
Cited by
- Shi-Jin Feng, An-Zheng Li, Hong-Xin Chen, Qi-Teng Zheng, Yong Zhao, Guo-Dong Shen, Numerical Simulation of Flowslide Considering Transient Seepage Flow and Progressive State Transition, Natural Hazards Review, 10.1061/NHREFO.NHENG-1981, 25, 2, (2024).
- Sina Sadeghfam, Marjan Moazamnia, Rahman Khatibi, Mathematical Treatment of Bimodality for the Safety Factor in Riverbank Stability Analysis Using Cusp Catastrophe, International Journal of Geomechanics, 10.1061/IJGNAI.GMENG-8532, 23, 11, (2023).