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Technical Papers
Jun 29, 2022

Effects of Nonstationarity of Extreme Wind Speeds and Ground Snow Loads in a Future Canadian Changing Climate

Authors: Si Han Li, Ph.D., M.ASCE https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8923-6746 [email protected], Peter Irwin, Ph.D., F.ASCE https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2493-6359 [email protected], Zoubir Lounis, Ph.D., M.ASCE [email protected], Ahmed Attar, Ph.D. [email protected], Jan Dale, M.ASCE [email protected], Mike Gibbons, M.ASCE https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1807-4687 [email protected], and Sonia Beaulieu [email protected]Author Affiliations
Publication: Natural Hazards Review
Volume 23, Issue 4
https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000572
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Abstract

Modern structural design codes assume a statistically stationary climate. However, it is now known that the climate is changing at a rate that calls into question the stationarity assumption. This study was undertaken to explore various methods of accounting for climate nonstationarity. The geographical domain of this study covers most of Canada, intending to explore how best to update future climatic variables in the National Building Code of Canada (NBC). Outputs from future climate simulations for North America by Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) and the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC) were used, focusing on a representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenario, namely the RCP8.5 emissions scenario. Surface hourly mean wind speeds and ground snow amounts were extracted from the simulations and used to detect and quantify trends in the extreme climatic variables from 1950 through 2100. This study reviewed different concepts for evaluating climatic design variables under stationary and nonstationary climates. It was found that within the range of linear nonstationarity detected for grid points within Canada, the results predicted using these nonstationary methods are close. Therefore, a simpler approach, namely Minimax design life level, was adopted to estimate the design wind speeds for 1/50 and 1/500 annual probability of exceedance and the design ground snow loads for 1/50 and 1/1,000 annual probability of exceedance. Design values derived based on nonstationary approaches were compared with the results estimated using the conventional return period concept between 1986 and 2016 and a moving-time-window method between 2060 and 2090 centered at 2075.

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Data Availability Statement

Some or all data, models, or codes used during the study were provided by a third party. Direct requests for these materials may be made to the provider as indicated in the Acknowledgments.

Acknowledgments

This study is part of the investigations of the Project on the Development of Climate Change Provisions for Structural Design of Buildings and Implementation plan in the National Building Code of Canada funded by National Research Council Canada (Contract No. 893442). Environment and Climate Change Canada is appreciated for providing the data used in this study. The authors appreciate the constructive comments and suggestions provided by the National Building Code of Canada Task Group on Climatic Loads. The authors also thank the following individuals for their expertise and suggestions throughout this study: B. Ellingwood, M. Pandey, X. Zhang, A. Cannon, H. P. Hong, and J. Galsworthy. However, the opinions expressed in this paper are those of the authors, not necessarily those of the Task Group.

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Information & Authors

Information

Published In

Go to Natural Hazards Review
Natural Hazards Review
Volume 23 • Issue 4 • November 2022

Copyright

© 2022 American Society of Civil Engineers.

History

Received: Aug 10, 2021
Accepted: Apr 8, 2022
Published online: Jun 29, 2022
Published in print: Nov 1, 2022
Discussion open until: Nov 29, 2022

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ASCE Technical Topics:

  1. Climate change
  2. Climates
  3. Construction engineering
  4. Construction management
  5. Continuum mechanics
  6. Design (by type)
  7. Dynamic loads
  8. Dynamics (solid mechanics)
  9. Engineering fundamentals
  10. Engineering mechanics
  11. Environmental engineering
  12. Load factors
  13. Mathematics
  14. Probability
  15. Snow loads
  16. Solid mechanics
  17. Standards and codes
  18. Static loads
  19. Statics (mechanics)
  20. Structural design
  21. Structural dynamics
  22. Structural engineering
  23. Wind engineering
  24. Wind loads
  25. Wind speed

Authors

Affiliations

Si Han Li, Ph.D., M.ASCE https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8923-6746 [email protected]
Lead Climate Risk Specialist, Rowan Williams Davies & Irwin Inc., 600 Southgate Dr., Guelph, Canada N1G 4P6 (corresponding author). ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8923-6746. Email: [email protected]
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Peter Irwin, Ph.D., F.ASCE https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2493-6359 [email protected]
Senior Technical Director, Rowan Williams Davies & Irwin Inc., 600 Southgate Dr., Guelph, Canada N1G 4P6. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2493-6359. Email: [email protected]
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Zoubir Lounis, Ph.D., M.ASCE [email protected]
Principal Research Officer, National Research Council Canada, 1200 Montreal Rd., Ottawa, Canada K1A 0R6. Email: [email protected]
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Ahmed Attar, Ph.D. [email protected]
Technical Advisor, National Research Council Canada, 1200 Montreal Rd., Ottawa, Canada K1A 0R6. Email: [email protected]
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Jan Dale, M.ASCE [email protected]
Technical Director, Rowan Williams Davies & Irwin Inc., 600 Southgate Dr., Guelph, Canada N1G 4P6. Email: [email protected]
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Mike Gibbons, M.ASCE https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1807-4687 [email protected]
Wind Climate Specialist, Rowan Williams Davies & Irwin Inc., 600 Southgate Dr., Guelph, Canada N1G 4P6. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1807-4687. Email: [email protected]
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Sonia Beaulieu [email protected]
Project Manager, Rowan Williams Davies & Irwin Inc., 600 Southgate Dr., Guelph, Canada N1G 4P6. Email: [email protected]
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Cited by

  • Suresh Kumar K, Rahul PS, Sihan Li, Mike Gibbons, Closure to “Revisiting Basic Wind Speed of Metro Cities of India”, Natural Hazards Review, 10.1061/NHREFO.NHENG-1709, 24, 2, (2023).
    Abstract
  • Si Han Li, Extreme Wind and Snow Loads for Alaska in Projected Future Climates, ASCE Inspire 2023, 10.1061/9780784485163.008, (61-69), (2023).
    Abstract
  • Si Han Li, Effect of nonstationary extreme wind speeds and ground snow loads on the structural reliability in a future Canadian changing climate, Structural Safety, 10.1016/j.strusafe.2022.102296, 101, (102296), (2023).
    Crossref

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