Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Reference Evapotranspiration and Simulation of Daily Weather Data Using SIMETAW
Publication: Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering
Volume 140, Issue 2
Abstract
In this study, a SIMulation of EvapoTranspiration of Applied Water (SIMETAW) model was evaluated using monthly climatic data of four stations in Iran, namely Bushehr, Tabriz, Zahedan, and Mashhad, to investigate the effects of climate change on reference evapotranspiration (). SIMETAW generates daily weather data from monthly values applicable in climate change studies. HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model ver.3) outputs were statistically downscaled to project future variables. Maximum, minimum, and dew point temperature, precipitation, and wind speed were downscaled under two emission scenarios (A2 and B2) and two future periods (2020–2050 and 2050–2080) to simulate . Calculated values were compared with those simulated by SIMETAW in the base period (1961–2000). Results showed that, except for daily wind speed, the model accurately generated daily temperature variables and monthly precipitation. Furthermore, is expected to increase in most months. Values of at Bushehr Station are projected to increase from 164.7 to in 2050–2080, under the B2 scenario. The corresponding values are 125.4 to 137.5, 182.7 to 197.5, and 118.3 to for Tabriz, Zahedan, and Mashhad, respectively.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
References
Abdelhadi, A. W., Takeshi, H., Haruya, T., Akio, T., and Tariq, M. A. (2000). “Estimation of crop water requirements in arid region using Penman–Monteith equation with derived crop coefficients: A case study on Acala cotton in Sudan Gezira irrigated scheme.” Agric. Water Manage., 45(2), 203–214.
Alizadeh, A., and Keshavarz, A. (2005). “Status of agricultural water use in Iran.” Proc., Iranian American Workshop on Water Conservation, Reuse, And Recycling, National Academies Press, Washington, DC, 94–105.
Allen, R. G., Pereira, L. S., Raes, D., and Smith, M. (1998). Crop Evapotranspiration – guidelines for computing crop water requirements, Irrigation and Drainage Paper 56, United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome, Italy.
Anderson, J., et al. (2008). “Progress on incorporating climate change into management of California’s water resources.” J. Clim. Change, 87(1), 91–108.
ASCE. (2005). “The ASCE standardized reference evapotranspiration equation.” Standardization of Reference Evapotranspiration Task Committee Final Rep., R. G. Allen, et al., eds., Environmental and Water Resources Institute of ASCE, Reston, VA.
Azhar, A. H., and Perera, B. J. C. (2011). “Evaluation of reference evapotranspiration estimation methods under Southeast Australian conditions.” J. Irrig. Drain. Eng., 268–279.
Bormann, H., Diekkruger, B., and Renschler, C. (1999). “Regionalisation concept for hydrological modelling on different scales using a physically based model: Results and evaluation.” Phys. Chem. Earth Part B, 24(7), 799–804.
Canadian Climate Impacts, and Scenarios. (2005). “Downscaling tools.” 〈http://www.cics.uvic.ca/scenarios〉 (Nov. 20, 2005).
Dastorani, M. T., and Poormohammadi, S. (2012). “Evaluation of the effects of climate change on temperature, precipitation and evapotranspiration in Iran.” Proc., Int. Conf. on Applied Life Sciences (ICALS2012), International Conference on Applied Life Sciences.
Dibike, Y., and Coulibaly, P. (2005). “Hydrologic impact of climate change in the Saguenay watershed: Comparison of downscaling methods and hydrologic models.” J. Hydrol., 307(1–4), 145–163.
Eischeid, J. K., Baker, C. B., Karl, T. R., and Diaz, H. F. (1995). “The quality control of long-term climatological data using objective data analysis.” J. Appl. Meteorol., 34(12), 2787–2795.
El-Fadel, M., and Bou-Zeid, E. (2001). “Climate change and water resources in the Middle East: Vulnerability, socio-economic impacts, and adaptation.” Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei Note di Lavoro Series, 〈http://www.feem.it/web/activ/_activ.html〉 (Jun. 2001).
Evans, J. (2009). “21st century climate change in the Middle East.” Clim. Change, 92(3–4), 417–432.
Fealy, R., and Sweeney, J. (2008). “Statistical downscaling of temperature, radiation and potential evapotranspiration to produce a multiple GCM ensemble mean for a selection of sites in Ireland.” Irish Geogr., 41(1), 1–27.
Fila, G., Bellocchi, G., Acutis, M., and Donatelli, M. (2001). IRENE, Integrated resources for evaluating numerical estimates, Research Institute for Industrial Crops, Bologna, Italy.
Fu, G., Barber, M., and Chen, S. (2007). “Impacts of climate change on regional hydrological regimes in the Spokane River watershed.” J. Hydrol. Eng., 452–461.
Gabriel, K. R., and Neumann, J. (1962). “A Markov chain model for daily rainfall occurrence at Tel Aviv.” Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 88(375), 90–95.
Ghahreman, N., and Bakhtiari, B. (2009). “Solar radiation estimation from rainfall and temperature data in arid and semi-arid climates of Iran.” Desert, 14(2), 141–150.
Ghahreman, N., Ebrahimpour, M., and Orang, M. (2012). “Application of SIMETAW model for generating daily weather data and reference evapotranspiration (ETo) in two different climates in Iran.” Proc. Irrigation Australia/7th Asian Regional Conf. ICID, International Commission of Irrigation and Drainage/Irrigation, Australia.
Goyal, R. K. (2004). “Sensitivity of evapotranspiration to global warming: A case study of arid zone of Rajasthan (India).” Agric. Water Manage., 69(1), 1–11.
Huang, J., Zhang, J., Zhang, Z., Xu, C. Y., Wang, B., and Yao, J. (2011). “Estimation of future precipitation change in the Yangtze River basin by using statistical downscaling method.” Stoch. Environ. Res. Risk Assess., 25(6), 781–792.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (2007a). Climate change 2007: Synthesis report, Contributions of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (2007b). Climate change 2007: the physical science basis of climate change, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, D. Qin and Solomon S., eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K.
Islamic Republic of Iran Meteorology Organization. (2007). Data Processing Center, Iran Meteorological Organization, Tehran, Iran (in Farsi).
Jahanbani, H., Shui, L., Bavani, A., and Ghazali, A. (2011). “Uncertainty of climate change and its impact on reference evapotranspiration in Rasht City, Iran.” J. Water Clim. Change, 2(1), 72–83.
Jin-li, S., Li-gang, W., Jian-jun, Q., and Tian-zhi, R. (2009). “Test and preliminary application of the SIMETAW model in northwest of Liaoning.” Sci. Agric. Sin., 42(10), 3726–3733 (in Chinese).
Kang, S. Z., Gu, B. J., Du, T. S., and Zhang, J. H. (2003). “Crop coefficient and ratio of transpiration to evapotranspiration of winter wheat and maize in a semi-humid region.” Agric. Water Manage., 59(3), 239–254.
Keshavarz, A., Ashraft, A., Hydari, N., Pouran, M., and Farzaneh, E. A. (2005). “Water allocation and pricing in agriculture of Iran.” Proc., Iranian American Workshop on Water conservation, Reuse, And Recycling, National Academies Press, Washington, DC, 153–172.
Khalili, A. (1993). “A new method of bioclimtological classification system applied to the forest region of the South Caspian Sea.” Abs. Proc. 13th Int. Conf. on Biometeorology, International Society of Biometeorology.
Koukidis, E. N., and Berg, A. A. (2009). “Sensitivity of the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) to reanalysis products.” Atmosphere-Ocean, 47(1), 1–18.
Larsen, G. A., and Pense, R. B. (1982). “Stochastic simulation of daily climate data for agronomic models.” Agronomy J., 74(3), 510–514.
Li, L., Hao, Z., Wang, J., Wang, Z., and Yu, Z. (2008). “Impact of future climate change on runoff in the head region of the Yellow River.” J. Hydrol. Eng., 347–354.
Meehl, G. A., Covey, C., McAvaney, B., Latif, M., and Stoufer, R. J. (2005). “Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project.” Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 86(1), 89–93.
Nakićenović, N., et al. (2000). Special report on emissions scenarios, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva.
“North American Regional Reanalysis.” (2007). National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), 〈http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/rreanl/〉 (Jul. 12, 2007).
Orang, M., Snyder, R. L., and Sarreshteh, S. (2009). “Historical Estimates of Agricultural and Wetland Water Use in the San Joaquin Sacramento River Delta.” CA Water Plan Update 2009, Vol. 4, Dept. of Water Resources of California.
Orang, M. N., et al. (2013). “California simulation of evapotranspiration of applied water and agricultural energy use in California.” J. Integr. Agric., 12(8), 1371–1388.
Rahimi, J., Ebrahimpour, M., and Khalili, A. (2013). “Spatial changes of Extended De Martonne climatic zones affected by climate change in Iran.” Theor. Appl. Climatol., 112(3–4), 409–418.
Ramirez, J. A., and Finnerty, B. (1996). “ and Temperature effects on evapo-transpiration and irrigated agriculture.” J. Irrig. Drain. Eng., 155–163.
Richardson, C. W., and Wright, D. A. (1984). WGEN: A model for generating daily weather variables, USDA Publication ARS-8, National Technical Information Center, Springfield, VA.
Salas, J., Rajagopalan, B., Saito, L., and Brown, C. (2012). “Special section on climate change and water resources: Climate nonstationarity and water resources management.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 385–388.
Snyder, R. L., Geng, S., Orang, M., and Sarreshteh, S. (2012). “Calculation and simulation of evapotranspiration of applied water.” J. Integr. Agric., 11(3), 489–501.
Snyder, R. L., Orang, M., Geng, S., and Matyac, J. S. (2004). “SIMETAW simulation of evapotranspiration of applied water, Version 1.0., User Manual.” California Land and Water Use, Dept. of Water Resources and Dept. of Air, Land and Water Resources, Univ. of California, Davis.
Snyder, R. L., Orang, M., Matyac, J. S., Sarreshteh, S., and Kadir, T. (2009). “Delta Evapotranspiration of Applied Water – DETAW.” California Water Plan Update 2009, Vol. 4, Dept. of Water Resources of California.
Souvignet, M., Gaese, H., Ribbe, L., Kretschmer, N., and Oyarzún, R. (2010). “Statistical downscaling of precipitation and temperature in north-central Chile: An assessment of possible climate change impacts in an arid Andean watershed.” J. Hydrol. Sci., 55(1), 41–57.
Spano, D., et al. (2012). “Assessment of agricultural water demand using SIMETAW.” European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly Conf. Abstracts, Vol. 14, Geophysical Research Abstracts, 3406.
Stern, R. D. (1980). “The calculation of probability distributions for models of daily precipitation.” Archiv für Meteorologie, Geophysik und Bioklimatologie, Serie B, 28(1–2), 137–147.
Swelam, A., Snyder, R. L., and Orang, M. (2010). “Modeling evapotranspiration of Applied Water in Egypt Delta: Calibrating SIMETAW model under Nile Delta conditions.” Center for Special Studies and Program (CSSP), 〈www.waterplan.water.ca.gov〉.
Tang, B., Tong, L., Kang, S., and Zhang, L. (2011). “Impacts of climate variability on reference Evapotranspiration over 58 years in the Haihe river basin of north China.” Agric. Water Manage., 98(10), 1660–1670.
Terink, W., Immerzeel, W. W., and Droogers, P. (2013). “Climate change projections of precipitation and reference evapotranspiration for the Middle East and Northern Africa until 2050.” Int. J. Climatol..
Turral, H., Burke, J., and Faurès, J. M. (2011)., Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome.
Vaghefi, S. A., Mousavi, S. J., Abbaspour, K. C., Srinivasan, R., and Yang, H. (2013). “Analyses of the impact of climate change on water resources components, drought and wheat yield in semi-arid regions: Karkheh River Basin in Iran.” Hydrol. Process., in press.
Von Storch, H. (1995). “Inconsistencies at the interface of climate impact studies and global climate research.” Meteorol. Z., 4(2), 72–80.
Wilby, R. L., and Dawson, C. W. (2007). “SDSM 4.2-A decision support tool for the assessment of regional climate change impacts, Version 4.2 User Manual.” Lancaster Univ., Lancaster/Environment Agency of England and Wales, Lancaster, U.K.
Wilby, R. L., and Wigley, T. M. L. (1997). “Downscaling general circulation model output: A review of methods and limitations.” Prog. Phys. Geogr., 21(4), 530–548.
Wilby, R. L., Dawson, C. W., and Barrow, E. M. (2002). “SDSM—A decision support tool for the assessment of regional climate change impacts.” Environ. Model. Softw., 17(2), 145–157.
Xu, C. Y., Gong, L. B., Jiang, T., Chen, D. L., and Singh, V. P. (2006). “Analysis of spatial distribution and temporal trend of reference evapotranspiration and pan evaporation in Changjiang (Yangtze River) catchment.” J. Hydrol., 327(1–2), 81–93.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering
Volume 140 • Issue 2 • February 2014
Copyright
© 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: May 27, 2013
Accepted: Sep 25, 2013
Published online: Nov 7, 2013
Published in print: Feb 1, 2014
Discussion open until: Apr 7, 2014
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.