Multivariate Frequency Analysis of Annual Maxima Suspended Sediment Concentrations and Floods in the Jinsha River, China
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 25, Issue 9
Abstract
Streamflow plays a critical role in sediment transport. Traditional frequency analysis of annual maximal (AM) suspended sediment concentrations (SSCs) is usually based on univariate distribution of SSCs and may provide a limited assessment of SSC state, leading to an underestimate or overestimate of the corresponding probability. To address this issue, a multivariate frequency analysis framework is proposed for extreme sediment events using copula functions that account for the joint behavior of SSC and flood flow (i.e., peak discharge and volume). The uncertainties associated with copula modeling are also discussed. The Jinsha River in China is used as a case study. The results show that the copula-based multivariate method provides a more comprehensive assessment of extreme SSCs and their recurrence intervals than univariate frequency analysis. The uncertainty of copula modeling decreases with longer observation time and increases with larger return periods. The uncertainty ranges of the most likely design quantiles vary with different copulas, and the uncertainty range for the best-fit copula is not the smallest. This study is useful for the risk assessment of extreme SSC events under flood conditions.
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Data Availability Statement
Some or all data, models, and code generated or used during this study are available from the corresponding author by request.
Acknowledgments
This work was supported by the Project of the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2016YFC0402309) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 51679088). The authors are very grateful to the editors and anonymous reviewers whose comments and suggestions greatly improved the quality of this paper.
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Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 25 • Issue 9 • September 2020
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© 2020 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Received: Jul 8, 2019
Accepted: Apr 17, 2020
Published online: Jul 11, 2020
Published in print: Sep 1, 2020
Discussion open until: Dec 11, 2020
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