Bayesian Update of Hydrometeorological Probable Maximum Precipitation
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 24, Issue 11
Abstract
The hydrometeorological method to estimate probable maximum precipitation (PMP) has several problems, one of which is related to the update of PMP. This study proposes using the Bayesian method to overcome this problem of updating the PMP. Because this is an amendment to the hydrometeorological method of estimating PMP, other procedures like moisture maximization and storm transposition remain unchanged. This study considers the Seoul rain gauge station in Korea as an application example. A total of 110 major storms that occurred in Korea between 1969 and 2017 are transposed to Seoul to be used in this study. The results are that first, reasonable PMPs are derived only when the likelihood function is based on a step increase function from zero to one at the transposed precipitation. Second, PMPs are updated only when a new, higher transposed precipitation than the previous transposed storms is considered. Third, the PMPs estimated in this study are found to be very similar to the PMPs reported by the Korean government in 1987, 2000, and 2004. However, the behavior of the PMPs in this study, i.e., the duration-PMP relation, is smoother than the PMPs reported by the Korean government. Based on these findings, it is concluded that the Bayesian method can be easily and effectively used for the update of PMPs. Also, an important advantage of using the Bayesian method is that it may substitute for the envelopment procedure in PMP estimation.
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Data Availability Statement
The rainfall data used during the study are available from the KMA website (https://data.kma.go.kr). Other data generated or used during the study are available from the corresponding author by request.
Acknowledgments
This work is supported by a grant (19CTAP-C143641-02) from Infrastructure and Transportation Technology Promotion Research Program funded by the Ministry of Land Infrastructure and Transport of the Korean government.
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Published In
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 24 • Issue 11 • November 2019
Copyright
©2019 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Dec 14, 2018
Accepted: Jun 18, 2019
Published online: Aug 28, 2019
Published in print: Nov 1, 2019
Discussion open until: Jan 28, 2020
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