Abstract
Reliable water shortage evaluation in irrigation districts is based on more accurate water supply and demand data series. The objective of this paper is to propose a stochastic simulation model to more accurately simulate a water supply-demand time series (WSDTS). This stochastic simulation model is a two-dimensional contemporaneous-temporal dependence model (C-TDM) of natural WSDTS based on a time series of annual rainfall and reference crop evapotranspiration () from 1970 to 2013 in the Luhun irrigation district in Henan Province, China. The results reveal that the statistical properties as well as the contemporaneous dependence relationship (CDR) and temporal dependence relationship (TDR) of the WSDTS are well-maintained in the simulated data. All correlation coefficients exceed 0.95. The root-mean square error (RMSE) of the C-TDM indicates that the model performs better than either a contemporaneous dependence model (CDM) or a temporal dependence model (TDM). Furthermore, the copula-based stochastic simulation model is used to evaluate the water shortage risk in the Luhun irrigation district. The joint probability distribution (JPD) of a rainfall-poor, rich- scenario is 0.24, suggesting that a serious water resources shortage is unlikely to occur. In addition, the results indicate that considering both the TDR and CDR in stochastic simulation models can provide more conservative and reliable forecasts for water shortage risk evaluations in irrigation districts.
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Acknowledgments
This research is supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2018YFC0406501), Key Scientific Research Project in a University of Henan Province (Grant No. 15A570011), Outstanding Young Talent Research Fund of Zhengzhou University (Grant No. 1521323002), Program for Innovative Talents (in Science and Technology) in University of Henan Province (Grant No. 18HASTIT014), and the Foundation for University Youth Key Teacher of Henan Province (Grant No. 2017GGJS006). The authors are grateful for the work of the editorial office and the suggestions from the anonymous reviewers.
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Published In
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 24 • Issue 9 • September 2019
Copyright
©2019 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Aug 11, 2018
Accepted: Apr 24, 2019
Published online: Jul 12, 2019
Published in print: Sep 1, 2019
Discussion open until: Dec 12, 2019
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