Bivariate Risk Analysis of Droughts Using a Nonparametric Multivariate Standardized Drought Index and Copulas
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 24, Issue 5
Abstract
The Nonparametric Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (NMSDI) based on precipitation and soil moisture data in conjunction with copula functions is of primary concern in this study. We are the first to investigate bivariate return periods of the NMSDI using the two typical drought characteristics (duration and severity) at 10 stations in Konya Closed Basin (KCB) in Turkey. As a result, lognormal and log-logistic distributions were identified as the most suitable distributions for drought duration and severity series according to five commonly used goodness of fit tests. Various types of copulas were considered in modeling the joint dependence between duration and severity series at each station. Our results from the five goodness of fit tests and tail dependence assessments showed that BB6, BB7, and BB8 copulas outperformed the joint modeling of duration and severity series in the KCB. The bivariate return period analysis revealed a high risk for southeastern and southwestern regions in the KCB for the 3-month NMSDI series while north to northwestern regions could be exposed to high risk for the 6-month series.
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Acknowledgments
The authors thank the Editor(s) and anonymous reviewers of this paper for their thorough review and constructive comments, which have led to substantial improvements. This research was partially supported by the Scientific Research Projects Unit of Istanbul Technical University through the project (No. 39267). The authors would like to thank Turkish State Meteorological Service (TSMS) for providing the precipitation data. The upper tail dependence calculation was done by Vine copula R package by Schepsmeier et al. (2012). We also would like to appreciate NOAA/NCEP/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, for making soil moisture data available for public. We finally thank Mr. Turhan Uludag, who is acting as an English instructor at The Preparatory School of Foreign Languages, ITU North Cyprus, for editing the manuscript entirely.
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Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 24 • Issue 5 • May 2019
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©2019 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Received: Apr 5, 2018
Accepted: Nov 16, 2018
Published online: Mar 6, 2019
Published in print: May 1, 2019
Discussion open until: Aug 6, 2019
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