Detection of Change in Flood Return Levels under Global Warming
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 21, Issue 8
Abstract
Using recent advancements in the statistical extreme value theory, this study proposes a methodology for detection of change in flood return levels under climate change. Nonstationary scaling of regional projected peak flows with global warming is first tested by a likelihood ratio test. For nonstationary possible future realizations, the authors then investigate how long the stationary historical design magnitudes or return levels of floods will remain valid, taking into account the uncertainties in the estimation of observed and projected return levels. Although some flood projections are found to be nonstationary, many are stationary in nature. No coherent change in flood return level across the projections is detected in the case study of floods in the Columbia River using available streamflow projections. Most projections yield flood quantiles that are not likely to be critical in the coming century. However, for some simulations detection is achieved, with earlier detection in design magnitudes of lower return periods. A possible worst-case scenario considering the maximum of all the projections shows detection of change in floods of higher return periods in the 21st century.
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Acknowledgments
The authors thank the CBCCSP team, University of Washington, for making available the projected statistically downscaled and VIC-simulated daily streamflow projections for the Columbia River Basin for the CMIP3 models. They also thank Rick Katz, Eric Gilleland, and Dan Cooley for helpful clarifications through e-mail, and the editor, associate editor, and three anonymous reviewers whose comments helped improve the manuscript significantly.
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Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 21 • Issue 8 • August 2016
Copyright
© 2016 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Feb 23, 2015
Accepted: Oct 2, 2015
Published online: Mar 23, 2016
Published in print: Aug 1, 2016
Discussion open until: Aug 23, 2016
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