Technical Papers
Mar 24, 2016

Multimodel Approach Using Neural Networks and Symbolic Regression to Combine the Estimated Discharges of Rainfall-Runoff Models

Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 21, Issue 8

Abstract

The aim of this study is to compare the performance of a symbolic regression combination method based on gene expression programming (GEP) with different neural network combination methods when used in the development of multimodel systems. The two different neural network combination methods used in this study are the multilayer perceptron neural network (MLPNN) and the radial basis function neural network (RBFNN). The methods were used to combine the results from different types of rainfall-runoff models to test the multimodel combination system in catchments located in Thailand and New Zealand. Comparison of the results revealed that the GEP performed better than neural network methods in the case of the catchment located in New Zealand. Nevertheless, the RBFNN method outperformed the GEP and the MLPNN combination method in the case of the catchment located in Thailand. However, which combination method produces better results in the multimodel combination is not conclusive. The results suggest that the selection of the best combination method to be used in conjunction with the multimodel approach may depend on the catchment type.

Get full access to this article

View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.

References

Abbaspour, K. C., et al. (2007). “Modelling hydrology and water quality in the pre-alpine/alpine Thur watershed using SWAT.” J. Hydrol., 333(2–4), 413–430.
Abrahart, R. J., and See, L. (2002). “Multi-model data fusion for river flow forecasting: An evaluation of six alternative methods based on two contrasting catchments.” Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 6(4), 655–670.
Ahsan, M., and O’Connor, K. M. (1994). “A simple non-linear rainfall-runoff model with a variable gain factor.” J. Hydrol., 155(1–2), 151–183.
Ajami, N. K., Duan, Q., Gao, X., and Sorooshian, S. (2006). “Multimodel combination techniques for analysis of hydrological simulations: Application to distributed model intercomparison project results.” J. Hydrometeorol., 7(4), 755–768.
Alansi, A. W., Amin, M. S. M., Abdul Halim, G., Shafri, H. Z. M., and Aimrun, W. (2009). “Validation of SWAT model for stream flow simulation and forecasting in Upper Bernam humid tropical river basin, Malaysia.” Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 6(6), 7581–7609.
ArcMAP 9.2 [Computer software]. ESRI, Redlands, CA.
Arnold, J. G., and Allen, P. M. (1996). “Estimating hydrologic budgets for three Illinois watersheds.” J. Hydrol., 176(1–4), 57–77.
Arnold, J. G., Srinivasan, R., Muttiah, R. S., and Williams, J. R. (1998). “Large area hydrologic modeling and assessment. Part I: Model development.” J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 34(1), 73–89.
ASCE. (1993). “Criteria for evaluation of watershed models.” J. Irrig. Drain. Eng., 429–442.
Bates, J. M., and Granger, C. W. J. (1969). “The combination of forecasts.” J. Oper. Res. Soc., 20(4), 451–468.
Cavadias, G., and Morin, G. (1986). “The combination of simulated discharges of hydrological models.” Nord. Hydrol., 17, 21–32.
Chen, S., Wang, X., and Harris, C. J. (2005). “Experiments with repeating weighted boosting search for optimization in signal processing applications.” IEEE Trans. Syst. Man. Cybern. B Cybern., 35(4), 682–693.
Chu, T. W., and Shirmohammadi, A. (2004). “Evaluation of the SWAT model’s hydrology component in the piedmont physiographic region of Maryland.” Trans. ASAE, 47(4), 1057–1073.
Clemen, R. T. (1989). “Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography.” Int. J. Forecast., 5, 559–583.
Dawson, C. W., Harpham, C., Wilby, R. L., and Chen, Y. (2002). “Evaluation of artificial neural network techniques for flow forecasting in the River Yangtze, China.” Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 6(4), 619–626.
Dawson, C. W., and Wilby, R. L. (2001). “Hydrological modelling using artificial neural networks.” Progr. Phys. Geogr., 25(1), 80–108.
DHI Water Environment and Health. (2007). MIKE 11: A modelling system for rivers and channels, Denmark.
Duan, Q., Gupta, H. V., Sorooshian, S., Rousseau, A. N., and Turcotte, R., eds. (2003). Calibration of watershed models, American Geophysical Union, Washington, DC.
Fernando, A. K., Shamseldin, A. Y., and Abrahart, R. J. (2009). “Using gene expression programming to develop a combined runoff estimate model from conventional rainfall-runoff model outputs.” 18th World IMACS Congress and MODSIM09 Int. Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand and International Association for Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, Perth, WA, Australia.
Fernando, A. K., Shamseldin, A. Y., and Abrahart, R. J. (2011). “Comparison of two data-driven approaches for daily river flow forecasting.” MODSIM2011, 19th Int. Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, Perth, WA, Australia, 1077–1083.
Ferreira, C. (2001). “Gene expression programming: A new adaptive algorithm for solving problems.” Complex Syst., 13(2), 87–129.
Granger, C. W. J., and Newbold, P. (1977). Forecasting economic time series, Academic Press, New York.
Gupta, H. V., Kling, H., Yilmaz, K. K., and Martinez, G. F. (2009). “Decomposition of the mean squared error and NSE performance criteria: Implications for improving hydrological modelling.” J. Hydrol., 377(1–2), 80–91.
Gupta, H. V., Sorooshian, S., and Patric, O. Y. (1998). “Toward improved calibration of hydrologic models: Multiple and noncommensurable measures of information.” Water Resour. Res., 34(4), 751–763.
Jayawardena, A. W., Fernando, D. A. K., and Zhou, M. C. (1997). “Comparison of multilayer perceptron and radial basis function networks as tools for flood forecasting.” Proc., Conf. Destructive Water: Water-Caused Natural Disaster, Their Abatement and Control, International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS), Wallingford, U.K., 173–181.
Jeong, D. I., and Kim, Y. O. (2009). “Combining single-value streamflow forecast—A review and guidelines for selecting techniques.” J. Hydrol., 377(3–4), 284–299.
Kachroo, R. K., Liang, G. C., and O’Connor, K. M. (1988). “Application of the linear perturbation model (LPM) to flood routing on the Mekong river.” Hydrol. Sci. J., 33(2), 193–214.
Kim, Y. O., Jeong, D., et al. (2006). “Combining rainfall-runoff model outputs for improving ensemble streamflow prediction.” J. Hydro. Eng., 578–588.
Koza, J. R. (1992). Genetic programming: On the programming of computers by means of natural selection, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
Mandeville, A. N., O’Connell, P. E., Sutcliffe, J. V., and Nash, J. E. (1970). “River flow forecasting through conceptual models. Part III—The Ray catchment at Grendon Underwood.” J. Hydrol., 11(2), 109–128.
Mason, J. C., Price, R. K., and Tem’Me, A. (1996). “A neural network model of rainfall-runoff using radial basis functions.” J. Hydraul. Res., 34(4), 537–548.
Moriasi, D. N., Arnold, J. G., Van Liew, M. W., Bingner, R. L., Harmel, R. D., Veith, T. L. (2007). “Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations.” Am. Soc. Agric. Biol. Eng., 50(3), 885–900.
Nash, J. E., and Barsi, B. I. (1983). “A hybrid model for flow forecasting on large catchments.” J. Hydrol., 65(1–3), 125–137.
Nash, J. E., and Sutcliffe, J. V. (1970). “River flow forecasting through conceptual models: Part 1—A discussion of principles.” J. Hydrol., 10, 282–290.
Neitsch, S. L., Arnold, J. G., Kiniry, J. R., Williams, J. R., and King, K. W. (2011). “Soil and water assessment tool theoretical documentation version 2009.”, Texas A&M Univ. System, College Station, TX.
Nelder, J. A., and Mead, R. (1965). “A simplex method for function minimization.” Comput. J., 7(4), 308–313.
Nielsen, S. A., and Hansen, E. (1973). “Numerical simulation of the rainfall runoff process on a daily basis.” Nordic Hydrol., 4(3), 171–190.
Rahman, M., Goel, N., and Arya, D. (2012). “Development of the Jamuneswari flood forecasting system: Case study in Bangladesh.” J. Hydro. Eng., 1123–1140.
Refsgaard, J. C. (1997). “Validation and intercomparison of different updating procedures for real-time forecasting.” Nordic Hydrol., 28(2), 65–84.
Roushangar, K. F., Vojoudi, M. F., and Alami, M. T. (2013). “Forecasting daily stream flows of Vaniar River using genetic programming and neural networks approaches.” J. Civ. Eng. Urban., 3(4), 197–200.
Santhi, C., Arnold, J. G., Williams, J. R., Dugas, W. A., Srinivasan, R., and Hauck, L. M. (2001). “Validation of the SWAT model on a large river basin with point and nonpoint sources.” J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 37(5), 1169–1188.
Senthil Kumar, A. R., Sudheer, K. P., Jain, S. K., and Agarwal, P. K. (2005). “Rainfall-runoff modelling using artificial neural networks: Comparison of network types.” Hydrol. Process., 19(6), 1277–1291.
Shamseldin, A. Y., O’Connor, K. M., and Liang, G. C. (1997). “Methods for combining the outputs of different rainfall-runoff models.” J. Hydrol., 197(1–4), 203–229.
Shamseldin, A. Y., O’Connor, K. M., and Nasr, A. E. (2007). “A comparative study of three neural network forecast combination methods for simulated river flows of different rainfall-runoff models.” Hydrol. Sci., 52(5), 896–916.
Sherrod, P. H. (2003). “DTREG: Predictive modeling software.” Annandale Cove, Brentwood, TN, 〈http://www.dtreg.com〉 (Jan. 18, 2008).
Srinivasan, R., Ramanarayanan, T. S., Arnold, J. G., and Bednarz, S. T. (1998). “Large area hydrologic modeling and assessment. Part II: Model application 1.” J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 34(1), 91–101.
Stathakis, D. (2009). “How many hidden layers and nodes?” Int. J. Remote Sens., 30(8), 2133–2147.
Tingsanchali, T., and Gautam, M. R. (2000). “Application of tank, NAM, ARMA and neural network models to flood forecasting.” Hydrol. Processes, 14(14), 2473–2487.
USDA, Soil Conservation Service. (1985). National engineering handbook, Washington, DC.
Van Griensven, A., and Bauwens, W. (2005). “Application and evaluation of ESWAT on the Dender basin and Wister Lake basin.” Hydrol. Process., 19(3), 827–838.
Velázquez, J. A., Anctil, F., and Perrin, C. (2010). “Performance and reliability of multimodel hydrological ensemble simulations based on seventeen lumped models and a thousand catchments.” Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14(11), 2303–2317.
Vu, M. T., Raghavan, S. V., and Liong, S. Y. (2012). “SWAT use of gridded observations for simulating runoff—A Vietnam river basin study.” Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16(8), 2801–2811.
Xiong, L., Shamseldin, A. Y., and O’Connor, K. M. (2001). “A non-linear combination of the forecasts of rainfall-runoff models by the first-order Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy system.” J. Hydrol., 245(1–4), 196–217.
Zakermoshfegh, M., Ghodsian, M., Salehi Neishabouri, S. A. A., and Shakiba, M. (2008). “River flow forecasting using neural networks and auto-calibrated NAM model with shuffled complex evolution.” J. Appl. Sci., 8, 1487–1494.

Information & Authors

Information

Published In

Go to Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 21Issue 8August 2016

History

Received: Jan 30, 2015
Accepted: Oct 21, 2015
Published online: Mar 24, 2016
Published in print: Aug 1, 2016
Discussion open until: Aug 24, 2016

Permissions

Request permissions for this article.

Authors

Affiliations

Phanida Phukoetphim, Ph.D. [email protected]
Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Univ. of Auckland, Private Bag 92019, Auckland 1142, New Zealand (corresponding author). E-mail: [email protected]
Asaad Y. Shamseldin [email protected]
Associate Professor, Deputy Head (Research), Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Univ. of Auckland, Private Bag 92019, Auckland 1142, New Zealand. E-mail: [email protected]
Keith Adams, Ph.D. [email protected]
Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Univ. of Auckland, Private Bag 92019, Auckland 1142, New Zealand. E-mail: [email protected]

Metrics & Citations

Metrics

Citations

Download citation

If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.

Cited by

View Options

Get Access

Access content

Please select your options to get access

Log in/Register Log in via your institution (Shibboleth)
ASCE Members: Please log in to see member pricing

Purchase

Save for later Information on ASCE Library Cards
ASCE Library Cards let you download journal articles, proceedings papers, and available book chapters across the entire ASCE Library platform. ASCE Library Cards remain active for 24 months or until all downloads are used. Note: This content will be debited as one download at time of checkout.

Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
ASCE Library Card (5 downloads)
$105.00
Add to cart
ASCE Library Card (20 downloads)
$280.00
Add to cart
Buy Single Article
$35.00
Add to cart

Get Access

Access content

Please select your options to get access

Log in/Register Log in via your institution (Shibboleth)
ASCE Members: Please log in to see member pricing

Purchase

Save for later Information on ASCE Library Cards
ASCE Library Cards let you download journal articles, proceedings papers, and available book chapters across the entire ASCE Library platform. ASCE Library Cards remain active for 24 months or until all downloads are used. Note: This content will be debited as one download at time of checkout.

Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
ASCE Library Card (5 downloads)
$105.00
Add to cart
ASCE Library Card (20 downloads)
$280.00
Add to cart
Buy Single Article
$35.00
Add to cart

Media

Figures

Other

Tables

Share

Share

Copy the content Link

Share with email

Email a colleague

Share