Parameter Uncertainty Analysis of Surface Flow and Sediment Yield in the Huolin Basin, China
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 19, Issue 6
Abstract
Growing concerns have been given to parameter uncertainty in hydrological modeling because of the associated effects on water resource management. In this study two uncertainty analysis methods, the sequential uncertainty fitting algorithm (SUFI-2) and the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE), were employed to analyze the uncertainty of surface flow and sediment yield modeling results by the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model. The two methods were also compared in terms of the capability in quantifying parameter and prediction uncertainties and the computational efficiency. The results showed that the SUFI-2 method was capable of examining the uncertainty by using the Latin hypercube sampling scheme. It also demonstrated the advantages in analyzing the effects of uncertainties for distributed hydrological models with complex structure and high computational demands. The GLUE method is specialized in reflecting parameter correlations and uncertainties associated with parameters and predictants.
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Acknowledgments
The research work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51179070) and Natural Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada. The authors deeply appreciate the editors and the anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments and suggestions.
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Published In
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 19 • Issue 6 • June 2014
Pages: 1224 - 1236
Copyright
© 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Nov 19, 2012
Accepted: Sep 18, 2013
Published online: Sep 20, 2013
Discussion open until: Feb 20, 2014
Published in print: Jun 1, 2014
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