Assessing GCM Convergence for India Using the Variable Convergence Score
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 19, Issue 6
Abstract
General circulation models (GCMs) use transient climate simulations to predict climate conditions in the future. Coarse-grid resolutions and process uncertainties necessitate the use of downscaling models to simulate precipitation. However, in the downscaling models, with multiple GCMs now available, selecting an atmospheric variable from a particular model which is representative of the ensemble mean becomes an important consideration. The variable convergence score (VCS) provides a simple yet meaningful approach to address this issue, providing a mechanism to evaluate variables against each other with respect to the stability they exhibit in future climate simulations. In this study, VCS methodology is applied to 10 atmospheric variables of particular interest in downscaling precipitation over India and also on a regional basis. The nested bias-correction methodology is used to remove the systematic biases in the GCMs simulations, and a single VCS curve is developed for the entire country. The generated VCS curve is expected to assist in quantifying the variable performance across different GCMs, thus reducing the uncertainty in climate impact–assessment studies. The results indicate higher consistency across GCMs for pressure and temperature, and lower consistency for precipitation and related variables. Regional assessments, while broadly consistent with the overall results, indicate low convergence in atmospheric attributes for the Northeastern parts of India.
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Acknowledgments
The authors would like to acknowledge the financial support from Australia India Strategic Fund for the project titled Managing Change in Soil Moisture and Agricultural Productivity under a Global Warming Scenario Using a Catchment Scale Climate Change Assessment (DST/INT/AUS/P-27/2009). The second author acknowledges support from Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India, through project no. MoES/ATMOS/PP-IX/09.
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Published In
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 19 • Issue 6 • June 2014
Pages: 1237 - 1246
Copyright
© 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Feb 2, 2013
Accepted: Jul 29, 2013
Published online: Jul 31, 2013
Discussion open until: Dec 31, 2013
Published in print: Jun 1, 2014
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