Design Flood Volume of the Three Gorges Dam Project
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 16, Issue 1
Abstract
With an increasing tendency of the flood disaster frequency and intensity in China, risk analysis of design flood volume for the Three Gorges Dam Project (TGP) should be of paramount importance for about one-half of the population and gross domestic product in China. How to predict the floods of Yangtze River with high precision is always a difficult problem, for the vast drainage basin and numerous tributaries. After a brief introduction of extreme value distribution and compound extreme value distribution, the TGP design flood volume predicted by the Chinese Hydraulic Design Code (CHDC) recommended annual maximum data sampling based Pearson type III extrapolation method is compared with the stochastic simulation technique based on the important sampling procedure (ISP) and the multivariate compound extreme value distribution (MCEVD), respectively. Comparison results show that the 100-year joint return period of the 3-day flood volume predicted by ISP and MCEVD is greater than 1,000-year return volume predicted by CHDC recommended method.
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Acknowledgments
This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. NNSFC50679076) and the Office of State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters of the People’s Republic of China (Grant No. UNSPECIFIED20060120). The writers would like to thank Miss Yijun Lu for her help in collecting data.
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Published In
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 16 • Issue 1 • January 2011
Pages: 71 - 80
Copyright
© 2011 ASCE.
History
Received: Aug 13, 2009
Accepted: Jun 18, 2010
Published online: Jun 22, 2010
Published in print: Jan 2011
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