Quantifying Uncertainty in Simulation of Sewer Overflow Volume
Publication: Journal of Environmental Engineering
Volume 144, Issue 7
Abstract
Environmental regulators frequently stipulate the modeling approaches required for water utilities managing sewer networks to demonstrate regulatory compliance. The performance of drainage systems with regard to combined sewer overflow (CSO) discharges is required to be assessed using urban drainage models to prove compliance before large investments can be authorized. However, as far as the authors are aware, the modeling approaches to demonstrate regulatory compliance currently provide no opportunity for considering model uncertainty. This paper therefore addresses a knowledge gap in the role of model uncertainty in environmental compliance studies by describing an objective uncertainty quantification process that enables the water utilities to evaluate and report the uncertainty in their modeling predictions and that is also transparent enough to satisfy regulators. The sewer network was modeled in InfoWorks CS software using a design storm defined by the regulator to test the performance of CSOs. Uncertainty in the model and input parameters was propagated using Monte Carlo simulations with Latin hypercube sampling, and the results were presented to show the trade-off between the infrastructure investment and the risk of spilling.
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Acknowledgments
This research work was supported by the Marie Curie ITN Quantifying Uncertainty in Integrated Catchment Studies (QUICS). This project received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development, and demonstration under the grant agreement 607000.
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Published In
Journal of Environmental Engineering
Volume 144 • Issue 7 • July 2018
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This work is made available under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license, http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
History
Received: May 24, 2017
Accepted: Jan 16, 2018
Published online: May 3, 2018
Published in print: Jul 1, 2018
Discussion open until: Oct 3, 2018
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