Impacts of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activity on Permafrost Soils at Eielson Air Force Base, Alaska
Publication: Journal of Cold Regions Engineering
Volume 33, Issue 3
Abstract
The Department of Defense is planning more than $552M in military construction on Eielson Air Force Base (AFB) within the next three fiscal years. Although many studies have been conducted on permafrost and climate change, the future of our climate and any impacts on permafrost soils remains uncertain. This research focused on future climate and permafrost predictions for two sites on Eielson AFB. The most recent 2013 International Panel on Climate Change report predicts a 2.2°C to 7.8°C air temperature rise in Arctic regions by the end of the 21st century in the Representative Concentration Pathways, (RCP 4.5) emissions scenario. This study provides an explanation of the impacts of this temperature rise on permafrost soils. The University of Alaska’s Geosphysical Institute Permafrost Laboratory (GIPL) 2.1 Permafrost Model was used to model permafrost conditions from 1947 to 2015 using United States Air Force (USAF) recorded surface weather observations. Two emissions scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were then used to project permafrost conditions throughout the 21st century. Results show that permafrost conditions are continually deteriorating with anthropogenic activity and rising temperatures in the Fairbanks, Alaska region.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Acknowledgments
Dr. Vladimir Romanovsky from the University of Alaska Fairbanks Permafrost Laboratory was crucial in providing typical properties experienced in the Fairbanks area.
Disclaimers
The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not reflect the official policy or position of the United States Air Force, the Department of Defense, or the US Government.
References
Brewer, M. C., and H. Jin. 2008. “Warming of cold permafrost in northern Alaska during the last half-century.” In Proc., 9th Int. Conf. on Permafrost, 189–194. Fairbanks, Alaska: Institute of Northern Engineering, Univ. of Alaska Fairbanks.
Brown, J., K. M. Hinkel, and F. E. Nelson. 2000. “The circumpolar active layer monitoring (CALM) program: Research designs and initial results.” Polar Geogr. 24 (3): 166–258. https://doi.org/10.1080/10889370009377698.
Davis, N. 2001. Permafrost: A guide to frozen ground in transition. Fairbanks, Alaska: University of Alaska Press.
Dhananjay, M., and K. Abhilash. 2014. “Study of thermal gradient in concrete slabs through experimental approach.” Global J. Res. Eng.: Civ. Struct. Eng. 14 (5): 14.
Christensen, J. H., K. K. Kumar, E. Aldria, S.- I. An, I. F. a. Cavalcanti, M. De Castro, and T. Zhou. 2013. “IPCC 2013 Chapter 14: Climate phenomena and their relevance for future regional climate change supplementary material.” In Proc., Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. New York: Cambridge University Press.
DoD (Department of Defense). 2014. “2014 climate change adaptation roadmap.” In Proc., 2014 Climate Change Adaptation Roadmap, Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Strategy. Arlington, VA: DoD.
GIPL (Geophysical Institute Permafrost Laboratory). 2010. “GIPL 2.0: Spatially distributed model of permafrost dynamics in Alaska.” Accessed October 19, 2016. http://permafrost.gi.alaska.edu/content/modeling.
Green, M. C. 2016. 65% design submittal specifications. Washington, DC: United States Corps of Engineers.
IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change). 1990. “Climate change: The IPCC scientific assessment.” In Intergovernmental panel on climate change, edited by J. Houghton, G. Jenkins, and J. Ephraums. New York: Cambridge University Press.
IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change). 2013. “Climate change 2013: The physical science basis.” In Proc., Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Jumikis, A. 1966. Thermal soil mechanics. 1st ed. New Brunswick, NJ: Rutgers University Press.
Lemke, P., et al. 2007. “IPCC: Observations: Changes in snow, ice and frozen ground.” In Climate change 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, 337–383. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Muller, S. W. 1947. Permafrost or permanently Frozen ground and related engineering problems. Ann Arbor, MI: Edwards.
Panda, S. 2011. Permafrost distribution mapping and temperature modeling along permafrost distribution mapping and temperature modeling along the Alaska highway corridor. Interior Alaska. Fairbanks, Alaska: Univ. of Alaska Fairbanks.
Pastick, N. J., M. T. Jorgenson, B. K. Wylie, S. J. Nield, K. D. Johnson, and A. O. Finley. 2015. “Distribution of near-surface permafrost in Alaska: Estimates of present and future conditions.” Remote Sens. Environ. 168: 301–315. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2015.07.019.
Riseborough, D., N. Shiklomanov, B. Etzelmuller, S. Gruber, and S. Marchenko. 2008. “Recent advances in permafrost modelling.” Permafrost Periglacial Processes 19: 137–156. https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.
Romanovsky, V. E., and S. Marchenko. 2009. “The GIPL permafrost dynamics model.” Accessed August 14, 2016. http://permafrost.gi.alaska.edu/content/modeling.
Shadish, W., T. Cook, and D. Campbell. 2002. Experimental and quasi-experimental designs for generalized causal inference. 2nd ed. Belmont, CA: Wadsworth Cengage Learning.
SNAP. n.d. “Data sources.” Accessed December 10, 2016. https://www.snap.uaf.edu/methods/data.
Solomon, S., et al. 2007. “Summary for policymakers.” In Climate change 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, 996. New York: Cambridge University Press.
USGS. 2015. “Large loss of Alaska permafrost projected by 2100.” Science Daily. Accessed September 20, 2016. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/11/151130163426.htm.
Wilson, R. M., et al. 2017. “Greenhouse gas balance over thaw-freeze cycles in discontinuous zone permafrost.” J. Geophys. Res.: Biogeosci. 122 (2): 387–404. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JG003600.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Cold Regions Engineering
Volume 33 • Issue 3 • September 2019
Copyright
©2019 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Nov 14, 2017
Accepted: Sep 10, 2018
Published online: Jun 6, 2019
Published in print: Sep 1, 2019
Discussion open until: Nov 6, 2019
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.