Abstract
Hindcasting models can use historic ice jam observations and hydroclimatic data to identify conditions that form ice jams. However, historic ice jam records are often sparse or incomplete. New sources of historic ice jam data could improve hindcasting models, leading to better ice jam forecasting and flood warning systems. Because ice jams damage riparian trees, marker rings associated with historic scars include information about ice jam frequency and severity. This study examined marker rings from 56 trees along the Muskegon River to supplement the historic ice jam data on this system. The study team compared tree ring data to results from hindcasting models, which were independently validated with newspaper reports on 1,500 separate days. Logistic regression converted the marker ring data into annual ice jam probabilities. Ice jam dates from the dendrochronology data were too noisy to train or validate a hindcasting model. However, the marker ring data did confirm that ice jams on the Muskegon are nonstationary. Ice jams are significantly more likely now than they were before 1966. The marker rings also helped to distinguish between false-negatives and nondetects in the hindcasting model.
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Acknowledgments
This paper is based on a study funded by the USACE Muskegon Flood Risk Study based out of the Detroit district and the USACE Flood and Coastal Storm Damage Reduction Research and Development Program. Mary Weidel was the project manager and coordinated the project and all surveys. Raeanne Robinson reviewed the 1,500 newspapers and collected articles related to ice jams and flooding. Doug Putt collected the tree cores used in the analysis. Steve Daly provided helpful feedback on early data and methodology. Dr Jim Selegean provided field guidance and important geomorphic insights throughout this study. Dr. Jeanne Mihail and the Division of Plant Sciences at the University of Missouri provided laboratory equipment and space to perform the tree ring analysis. Comments from three anonymous reviewers improved the manuscript significantly.
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Published In
Journal of Cold Regions Engineering
Volume 33 • Issue 3 • September 2019
Copyright
©2019 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Aug 28, 2017
Accepted: Dec 4, 2018
Published online: Jun 13, 2019
Published in print: Sep 1, 2019
Discussion open until: Nov 13, 2019
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