Development of Non-Parametric Deterioration Models for Risk and Reliability Assessments of Concrete and Timber Bridges
Publication: Journal of Performance of Constructed Facilities
Volume 36, Issue 1
Abstract
Distresses in concrete and timber bridge components occur due to physical, chemical and mechanical factors that manifest as observable symptoms of deterioration. Deterioration models relate the observable defects to the several factors affecting the deterioration. Only limited studies exist on the development of non-parametric (NP) models for bridge management, which have the unique advantage of not requiring any assumption on the functional form of the models. To address this research gap, this paper develops non-parametric deterioration models for risk and reliability assessments of concrete and timber bridges based on two methods: (1) average time in condition rating (ATICR), and (2) Kaplan-Meier (K-M) estimates. This study proposes relative deterioration rates based on the ATICR of various concrete and timber bridge components. The methodology for developing NP deterioration models based on K-M estimates for probabilistic prediction of bridge safety while accounting for the partial information from the incomplete bridge condition observations is explained. This study also investigates the effect of multiple factors affecting the bridge component condition, including aging, traffic loads, environmental conditions, and design characteristics, and estimates the median survival years for reinforced concrete decks.
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Data Availability Statement
All data, models, and code generated or used during the study appear in the published article.
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to acknowledge the support and facilities provided by the Department of Civil, Environmental and Geomatics Engineering at Florida Atlantic University to carry out the research. The senior author would like to thank the partial financial support from the sponsored research project from the Transportation Research Board, IDEA Program, Contract No. Rail Safety 35. The authors would like to express their sincere appreciation to the reviewers for their time and constructive comments.
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Published In
Journal of Performance of Constructed Facilities
Volume 36 • Issue 1 • February 2022
Copyright
© 2021 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jun 14, 2021
Accepted: Oct 1, 2021
Published online: Nov 18, 2021
Published in print: Feb 1, 2022
Discussion open until: Apr 18, 2022
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