Risk of Progressive Collapse of Buildings from Terrorist Attacks: Are the Benefits of Protection Worth the Cost?
Publication: Journal of Performance of Constructed Facilities
Volume 31, Issue 2
Abstract
The paper describes a probabilistic risk assessment model to identify the risks associated with vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (VBIED) attacks to large federal government buildings in the United States. Probability of terrorist threat, hazard, damage, fatality, and economic and social loss for progressive collapse are modeled as stochastic variables. It was found that the existing annual fatality risk for building occupants is lower than acceptable risk criteria, and that progressive collapse is an exceedingly rare event in Western countries. A performance-based design using cost-benefit analysis of U.S. design provisions to mitigate against progressive collapse showed that these design measures only becomes cost-effective when the threat likelihood is a very high 1 in 1,000 per building per year. However, such provisions are more likely to be cost-effective in regions of high seismicity due to a lower cost premium.
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Acknowledgments
The support of the Australian Research Council grant DP110101397 is gratefully acknowledged.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Performance of Constructed Facilities
Volume 31 • Issue 2 • April 2017
Copyright
© 2016 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jul 29, 2015
Accepted: Jul 7, 2016
Published online: Aug 31, 2016
Discussion open until: Jan 31, 2017
Published in print: Apr 1, 2017
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